| It's so far out still. We're only now within the 10 day timeframe of the 0Z and 12Z Euro. That was a huge shift from the 0Z, well offshore from the Northeast U.S., to the 12Z showing landfall around Rhode Island / Massachusetts border. It shows how it's just so far out to see such a shift in a model like the Euro. There's a lot of uncertainties. I was wondering how a weaker storm in the near term impacted the forecast track. Could it get a little further west earlier on, which could impact the track further north in the Atlantic. It's forecast to slow. How much? How good is that forecast? If it were to slow more than forecast, it could give time for steering to change further to the north. I don't know much about weather forecasting. But I was taking a look at how the forecast upper levels are when the Euro shows landfall in the Northeast. Here is the 12Z Saturday run (Sep 9th): https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023090912&fh=204 And 0Z Saturday run (Sep 9th): https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=atl&pkg=z500_mslp&runtime=2023090900&fh=216 I have it set to the forecast for September 18th at 0Z. One thing I had wondered about was Margot, forecast to be a hurricane. I don't know, but look how much further apart the two storms are at 12Z compared to 0Z. Would Margot being closer affect the high pressure? The high pressure seems stronger in the run where it landfalls into the Northeast. Maybe Margot in the earlier run helps to erode it? I don't know. It's so far out, that the Euro at 12Z has another storm in the middle of the Atlantic (that isn't off Africa yet), around Margot, where the 0Z run didn't have that storm and instead has high pressure. That just shows how far we are still out with this storm. It has some very different things between the two runs. The NOAA G-IV has been added to the schedule starting tomorrow afternoon/evening (from recon Plan of the Day: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php ): NOUS42 KNHC 091858 REPRPD WEATHER RECONNAISSANCE FLIGHTS CARCAH, NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER, MIAMI, FL. 0300 PM EDT SAT 09 SEPTEMBER 2023 SUBJECT: TROPICAL CYCLONE PLAN OF THE DAY (TCPOD) VALID 10/1100Z TO 11/1100Z SEPTEMBER 2023 TCPOD NUMBER.....23-102 AMENDMENT I. ATLANTIC REQUIREMENTS 1. HURRICANE LEE FLIGHT ONE - TEAL 74 FLIGHT TWO - NOAA 49 (ADDED) A. 10/1800Z A. 11/0000Z B. AFXXX 1213A LEE B. NOAA9 1313A LEE C. 10/1630Z C. 10/1730Z D. 22.0N 61.3W D. NA E. 10/1730Z TO 10/2100Z E. NA F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT G. FIX G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE FLIGHT THREE - NOAA 42 FLIGHT FOUR - TEAL 75 A. 11/0000Z A. 11/0600Z B. NOAA2 1413A LEE B. AFXXX 1513A LEE C. 10/2030Z C. 11/0430Z D. 22.4N 61.9W D. 22.7N 62.5W E. 10/2130Z TO 11/0330Z E. 11/0530Z TO 11/0900Z F. SFC TO 10,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR G. FIX FLIGHT FIVE - NOAA 49 FLIGHT SIX - NOAA 43 A. 11/1200Z A. 11/1200Z B. NOAA9 1613A LEE B. NOAA3 1713A LEE C. 11/0530Z C. 11/0830Z D. NA D. 22.9N 63.1W E. NA E. 11/0930Z TO 11/1530Z F. 41,000 TO 45,000 FT F. SFC TO 10,000 FT G. SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE G. TAIL DOPPLER RADAR 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY: A. CONTINUE 12-HRLY FIXES ON LEE. B. ANOTHER POSSIBLE TWO NOAA P-3 TAIL DOPPLER RADAR MISSIONS FOR 12/0000Z AND 12/1200Z, DEPARTING TISX AT 11/2030Z AND 12/0830Z. C. NOAA 49 G-IV SYNOPTIC SURVEILLANCE MISSIONS AROUND LEE FOR 12/0000Z AND 12/1200Z, DEPARTING KLAL AT 11/1730Z AND 12/0530Z. 3. REMARK: THE TAKEOFF TIME FOR THE TEAL 76 FIX MISSION TASKED IN TCPOD 23-101 HAS BEEN CHANGED TO 10/0330Z. II. PACIFIC REQUIREMENTS 1. NEGATIVE RECONNAISSANCE REQUIREMENTS. 2. OUTLOOK FOR SUCCEEDING DAY.....NEGATIVE. And it will continue. Another mission departs 24 hours after Sunday's departue. Then another mission right after that one, departing 12 hours after that departure. I want that upper air data into some of the models, from them dropping sondes at high altitude around and ahead of the storm. So by early morning Monday we should start getting that data into some of the models, like the GFS. Not sure what other models get it. But even then, it's still so early. We really need to see how slow Lee gets. Steering ahead could have time to change one way or the other if it is slower or faster than forecast. The storm is forecast to be larger. It was smaller where it is now and was susceptible to shear. It will have gone over cooler waters, but a large, even weaker storm than it is now, would have a large coastal impact over a wide area than a smaller storm would. I was looking at the wave forecast in that run: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf®ion=neus&pkg=wavehgt&runtime=2023090912&fh=198 Wherever it potentially makes landfall, including Canada if it were closer to the GFS, there would be battering waves at the coast. I think it's just too early to have any idea if areas around you, or Canada, are more likely. It's still unclear how much impact it might have if any in Bermuda. (rip currents will be dangerous everywhere) There's still a chance it might not ever have a landfall. If I were you, I would make sure to have a full tank of gas soon. Any trees need trimming over, or next to, your house that you can get the debris picked up between now and then, do that. Just some basic steps, just in case. Things have been going back and forth for many days now. And they will continue to do that probably for at least several days. It might be 3 or 4 days before things are clearer. The 12Z GFS has landfall in Nova Scotia in 7 to 8 days. The Euro has landfall around Rhode Island / Massachusetts border in 8 to 9 days. That's a big difference in speed too between them. Everyone just needs to continue to watch it. It's better for people to start doing some basic preparations, including ones that they might not have been done at the start of the season, just in case. I'm sure that while a lot of people are familiar with nor'easters there, they aren't as familiar with hurricanes. There's few people in your area that know storms like you do: http://www.hurricanes-blizzards-noreasters.com/ |