| Track: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at3+shtml/?cone#contents Satellite floaters: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=AL132023 https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/storm.asp?storm_identifier=al132023 U.S. East Coast satellite view: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=eus&band=13&length=12 SLIDER display from Colorado State: https://rammb-slider.cira.colostate.edu/?sat=goes-16&sec=full_disk&x=10696&y=3344&z=2&angle=0&im=12&ts=1&st=0&et=0&speed=130&motion=loop&maps%5Bborders%5D=white&p%5B0%5D=band_13&opacity%5B0%5D=1&pause=0&slider=-1&hide_controls=0&mouse_draw=0&follow_feature=0&follow_hide=0&s=rammb-slider&draw_color=FFD700&draw_width=6 Hurricane Lee Advisory Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2023 ...HURRICANE AND TROPICAL STORM WATCHES ISSUED FOR PORTIONS OF ATLANTIC CANADA... SUMMARY OF 1100 PM AST...0300 UTC...INFORMATION ----------------------------------------------- LOCATION...28.0N 67.7W ABOUT 345 MI...555 KM SSW OF BERMUDA ABOUT 920 MI...1480 KM S OF NANTUCKET MASSACHUSETTS MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...105 MPH...165 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...N OR 350 DEGREES AT 9 MPH...15 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...953 MB...28.15 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Hurricane Watch for the coast of New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island. A Hurricane Watch has also been issued for the coast of Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour. The Canadian Hurricane Center has issued a Tropical Storm Watch for the coast of New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the west coast of Nova Scotia from north of Digby eastward to Onslow, then westward and northward to Fort Lawrence. A Tropical Storm Watch has been issued for the southeast coast of Nova Scotia from north of Medway Harbour to Porter's Lake. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Watch is in effect for... * Stonington, ME to the U.S./Canada border * New Brunswick from the U.S./Canada border to Point Lepreau, including Grand Manan Island * Nova Scotia from Digby to Medway Harbour A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * Bermuda A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for... * Watch Hill, RI to Stonington, ME * Block Island * Martha's Vineyard * Nantucket * New Brunswick from north of Point Lepreau to Fort Lawrence * Nova Scotia west coast from north of Digby to Fort Lawrence * Nova Scotia southeast coast from north of Medway Harbour to Porter's Lake A Storm Surge Watch is in effect for... * Cape Cod Bay * Nantucket A Hurricane Watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area, in this case within the next 24 hours. A Tropical Storm Watch means that tropical storm conditions are possible within the watch area, generally within 48 hours. A Storm Surge Watch means there is a possibility of life- threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours. For a depiction of areas at risk, please see the National Weather Service Storm Surge Watch/Warning Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov. Interests elsewhere in the northeastern United States and Atlantic Canada should monitor the progress of Lee. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- At 1100 PM AST (0300 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lee was located near latitude 28.0 North, longitude 67.7 West. Lee is moving toward the north near 9 mph (15 km/h). A generally northward motion and an increase in forward speed are expected through Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Lee will pass west of Bermuda Thursday and Thursday night and then approach the coast of New England and Atlantic Canada Friday and Saturday. Maximum sustained winds are near 105 mph (165 km/h) with higher gusts. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, but Lee is expected to remain a large and dangerous hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 115 miles (185 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 265 miles (425 km). The minimum central pressure reported by a NOAA Hurricane Hunter aircraft is 953 mb (28.15 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lee can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDAT3 and WMO header WTNT43 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDAT3.shtml WIND: Tropical storm conditions are expected in Bermuda starting early Thursday. Hurricane conditions are possible in portions of Down East Maine and in the Hurricane Watch area in Atlantic Canada on Saturday. Tropical storm conditions are possible in portions of coastal New England and Atlantic Canada in the Tropical Storm Watch area beginning Friday night. STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide... Chatham, MA to Sagamore Beach, MA...2-4 ft Cape Cod Bay...2-4 ft Nantucket...2-4 ft Sagamore Beach, MA to Border of US/Canada...1-3 ft Boston Harbor...1-3 ft Flushing, NY to Chatham, MA...1-3 ft Montauk Point, NY to Flushing, NY...1-3 ft Long Island Sound...1-3 ft Martha's Vineyard...1-3 ft Rockaway Inlet, NY to Montauk Point, NY...1-2 ft The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office. A dangerous storm surge could produce coastal flooding within the wind watch areas in Atlantic Canada in areas of onshore winds. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. SURF: Swells generated by Lee are affecting portions of the Lesser Antilles, the British and U.S. Virgin Islands, Puerto Rico, Hispaniola, the Turks and Caicos Islands, the Bahamas, Bermuda, the east coast of the United States and are beginning to reach Atlantic Canada. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. RAINFALL: Outer rain bands from Lee could produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 2 inches, or 25 to 50 millimeters, across Bermuda Thursday into early Friday. From Friday night through Saturday night, Lee is expected to produce rainfall amounts of 1 to 4 inches, or 25 to 100 millimeters, across portions of eastern New England into portions of New Brunswick and Nova Scotia. This could produce localized urban and small stream flooding. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next intermediate advisory at 200 AM AST. Next complete advisory at 500 AM AST. $$ Forecaster Pasch Hurricane Lee Discussion Number 35 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL AL132023 1100 PM AST Wed Sep 13 2023 Both NOAA and Air Force Reserve Unit Hurricane Hunter aircraft have been investigating Lee this evening. They found that the central pressure has not changed much since earlier today, and that the hurricane still had concentric eyewalls, but these were partially open over portions of the western quadrant. The Air Force plane measured 700 mb flight-level winds as high as 105 kt and the NOAA plane found winds as high as 107 kt at a flight level of 8000 ft. Tail Doppler radar velocities from the NOAA plane were near 100 kt at elevations of 0.5 km. These observations support maintaining the intensity at 90 kt for this advisory. Satellite imagery also suggests that the eyewall is not fully closed but there is fairly intense inner-core convection. There has been a (likely temporary) decrease in forward speed and the initial motion is just west of due north or 350/8 kt. The steering scenario for the hurricane is essentially unchanged from the previous few advisories. A 500-mb trough moving into the northeastern U.S. and a mid-level ridge near eastern Atlantic Canada should cause Lee to move generally northward at a faster forward speed during the next couple of days. A slight bend to the left is likely around 48 hours while the tropical cyclone interacts with the trough. This will likely bring the center of Lee close to southeastern New England late Friday before it moves near or over Maine and Atlantic Canada later in the weekend. The official track forecast is similar to the previous one and closely follows both the simple and corrected dynamical consensus guidance. Over the next couple of days, Lee will encounter significantly increasing vertical wind shear and somewhat drier mid- to low-level air. Sea surface temperatures along the projected track decrease sharply north of around 40N latitude. These conditions should cause weakening, but since the hurricane has such a large circulation, the weakening will likely be slow. The NHC intensity forecast is near or above the highest available model guidance. Notwithstanding, there is still high confidence that Lee will be a large and dangerous cyclone when it moves near or over land on Saturday. It should again be noted that the 34- and 50-kt wind speed probabilities beyond 36 hours in the text and graphical products are likely underestimating the risk of those winds occurring. This is because the forecast wind field of Lee is considerably larger than average compared to the wind field used to derive the wind speed probability product. KEY MESSAGES: 1. Tropical storm conditions, heavy rainfall, and high surf are expected to impact Bermuda beginning early Thursday, and a Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the island. 2. Hurricane conditions and coastal flooding are possible in portions of eastern Maine, southern New Brunswick, and western Nova Scotia on Saturday, and a Hurricane Watch has been issued for that area. Heavy rainfall in these areas may produce localized urban and small stream flooding from Friday night into Saturday night. 3. There is the potential for life-threatening storm surge flooding in portions of southeastern Massachusetts, including Cape Cod and Nantucket, late Friday and Saturday, where a Storm Surge Watch has been issued. 4. Tropical storm conditions are possible over a large portion of coastal New England, including Cape Cod, Nantucket, Martha's Vineyard, Block Island, and portions of Atlantic Canada, where a Tropical Storm Watch has been issued. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 14/0300Z 28.0N 67.7W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 14/1200Z 29.6N 68.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 15/0000Z 31.9N 68.0W 85 KT 100 MPH 36H 15/1200Z 34.8N 67.2W 80 KT 90 MPH 48H 16/0000Z 37.7N 66.5W 75 KT 85 MPH 60H 16/1200Z 41.0N 66.7W 65 KT 75 MPH 72H 17/0000Z 44.0N 66.3W 60 KT 70 MPH 96H 18/0000Z 49.4N 60.9W 40 KT 45 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP 120H 19/0000Z 53.7N 50.0W 35 KT 40 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP $$ Forecaster Pasch Recon: https://hurricanecity.com/recon/ Fixes are occurring every 6 hours with Lee. Recon schedule, from Plan of the Day: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/recon.php Local NWS products for Lee: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/refresh/index_hls3+shtml/ Canada's metrological service: https://weather.gc.ca/ Quantitative Precipitation Forecasts from the Weather Prediction Center for estimated forecast rain totals: https://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/#page=qpf NOAA's Advanced Hydrologic Prediction Service (AHPS) for river levels later: https://water.weather.gov/ahps/forecasts.php NOAA's Tides and Currents website for tide levels later: https://tidesandcurrents.noaa.gov/ Later, radar across the Northeast: https://mrms.nssl.noaa.gov/qvs/product_viewer/index.php?time_mode=update&zoom=5&clon=-75&clat=42&product_type=crefls&product=CREF&looping_active=on |