| That strengthened extremely rapidly. It looks to have hit a stretch of coastline that is not too populated. It hit south of Puerto Vallarta. They shouldn't even have hurricane force winds there. The core is small. It shows again that storms can sometimes strengthen very quickly, even just before landfall. This morning the forecast was for 105mph, though the discussion noted that after that forecast point, "Lidia could intensify further up to landfall." It just did by a considerable amount. It was 85mph at the time. (5am EDT) NHC: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/ Mexico satellite: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/sector_band.php?sat=G16§or=mex&band=13&length=24 Floater: https://www.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES/floater.php?stormid=EP152023 Hurricane Lidia Intermediate Advisory Number 31A NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP152023 600 PM MDT Tue Oct 10 2023 ...EXTREMELY DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE LIDIA MAKES LANDFALL IN WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... ...LIFE-THREATENING WINDS AND FLOODING RAINFALL SPREADING INLAND OVER WEST-CENTRAL MEXICO... SUMMARY OF 600 PM MDT...0000 UTC...INFORMATION ---------------------------------------------- LOCATION...20.1N 105.5W ABOUT 15 MI...25 KM SSE OF CABO CORRIENTES MEXICO ABOUT 35 MI...55 KM SSW OF PUERTO VALLARTA MEXICO MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...140 MPH...220 KM/H PRESENT MOVEMENT...ENE OR 70 DEGREES AT 16 MPH...26 KM/H MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...942 MB...27.82 INCHES WATCHES AND WARNINGS -------------------- CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY: None. SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT: A Hurricane Warning is in effect for... * Las Islas Marias * Manzanillo to El Roblito A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for... * El Roblito to Mazatlan * Punta San Telmo to Manzanillo A Hurricane Warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A Tropical Storm Warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. Interests elsewhere in west-central Mexico should monitor the progress of Lidia. For storm information specific to your area, please monitor products issued by your national meteorological service. DISCUSSION AND OUTLOOK ---------------------- Satellite imagery indicates that the eye of Lidia has made landfall along the coast of west-central Mexico near Las Penitas in the state of Jalisco around 550 PM MDT (2350 UTC) with maximum winds estimated to be near 140 mph (220 km/h). At 600 PM MDT (0000 UTC), the center of Hurricane Lidia was located on the coast near latitude 20.1 North, longitude 105.5 West. Lidia is moving toward the east-northeast near 16 mph (26 km/h). A slightly faster east-northeastward motion is expected through tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Lidia will move inland over west-central Mexico tonight and Wednesday morning. Maximum sustained winds are near 140 mph (220 km/h) with higher gusts. Lidia is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Rapid weakening is expected as Lidia moves inland tonight and Wednesday. Hurricane-force winds extend outward up to 30 miles (45 km) from the center and tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 140 miles (220 km). The estimated minimum central pressure is 942 mb (27.82 inches). HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND ---------------------- Key messages for Lidia can be found in the Tropical Cyclone Discussion under AWIPS header MIATCDEP5 and WMO header WTPZ45 KNHC and on the web at hurricanes.gov/text/MIATCDEP5.shtml RAINFALL: Lidia is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with local maxima of 12 inches through Wednesday across the state Nayarit, southern portions of the state of Sinaloa, and coastal portions of the state of Jalisco in western Mexico. These rains will likely produce flash and urban flooding, along with possible mudslides in areas of higher terrain near the coast. STORM SURGE: A dangerous storm surge is expected to produce significant coastal flooding near and to the south of where Lidia made landfall. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. WIND: Hurricane conditions are occurring in portions of west-central Mexico within the hurricane warning area. Tropical storm conditions are occuring in portions of the tropical storm warning areas. SURF: Swells generated by Lidia will affect the west coast of Mexico and the Baja California peninsula for the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. NEXT ADVISORY ------------- Next complete advisory at 900 PM MDT. $$ Forecaster Bucci/Brown |