Re: Time to start watching the GOM again this week?
Posted by
CypressTX on 6/21/2009, 11:19 am
CMC & ECWCF both move the ridge east & GFS keeps it further west, I amm pulling for whichever one will bring us rain & cooler temps - here's hou/gal discussion:
.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 258 AM CDT SUN JUN 21 2009/
DISCUSSION...
27 DAYS IN A ROW WITH A TRACE OF RAIN OR LESS. WELCOME TO
SUMMER!!! SUMMER SOLSTICE WAS AT 1245 AM CDT BUT IT HAS FELT LIKE
SUMMER FOR A FEW WEEKS NOW. AN UPPER LEVEL RIDGE WAS ANCHORED NEAR
THE ARKLATEX. THE RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE WEST THIS WEEK PROVIDING
SOUTHEAST TEXAS WILL UNSEASONABLY WARM TEMPERATURES. TEMPERATURES
WILL LIKELY EXCEED 100 DEGREES OVER AREAS NORTH OF I-10 TUE-FRI.
SUBSIDENCE FROM THE RIDGE WILL BE STRONG AND THE DOMINANT WEATHER
MAKER. THAT SAID...A WEAK VORT MAX COUPLED WITH A SPEED MAX AND
LEFT FRONT QUAD WILL APPROACH THE UPPER COAST THIS AFTERNOON.
WATER VAPOR SHOWS THE DISTURBANCE WITH A BIT OF A CURL HEADING
TOWARD THE TEXAS COAST. SATELLITE DERIVED PW SHOW A SWATH OF 1.7
INCH PW AIR HEADING TOWARD THE COAST. MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT
OF DEVELOPING PRECIP IN A SMALL AREA FROM WHARTON TO HOUSTON. BOTH
THE NAM AND GFS HAVE 850 MB TEMPS BETWEEN 18-19C AND 700 MB TEMPS
ARE BETWEEN 8-9C. WILL MENTION ISOLATED TSRA FOR THIS AFTERNOON
FOR A SMALL AREA NEAR THE APPROACHING SPEED MAX BUT TRULY BELIEVE
SUBSIDENCE WILL PUT THE BRAKES ON DEVELOPMENT. THE REST OF THE
WEEK WILL BE HOT AND DRY. IAH MAY SET MAX TEMPERATURE RECORDS ON
THE 23RD AND 24TH. THE GFS KEEPS THE UPPER RIDGE FURTHER WEST NEXT
WEEKEND ALLOWING LOWER HEIGHTS AND SLIGHTLY COOLER TEMPERATURES.
THE ECMWF AND CANADIAN BRING THE RIDGE BACK TO THE EAST. AT THIS
TIME WILL FAVOR THE WARMER AND DRIER CAN/ECMWF SOLUTION. 43
RECORDS:
DATE GLS IAH CLL HOU
JUNE 22 96 1933 101 1906 103 1933 101 1933
JUNE 23 96 1875 99 1990 102 1953 97 1998
JUNE 24 96 1875 99 1980 102 1933 98 1933
JUNE 25 96 1875 100 1980 100 1998 98 1987 |
78
In this thread:
Time to start watching the GOM again this week? -
JAC,
6/20/2009, 10:52 pm- GFS has it stationary - JAC, 6/23/2009, 7:08 am
- BOC Buoy at 29.73" (1006.7mb) - JAC, 6/23/2009, 6:43 am
- GFS, CMC has genesis within 24 hrs - JAC, 6/22/2009, 2:16 pm
- Yellow Box for BOC - JAC, 6/22/2009, 1:47 pm
- SST's turning very warm - JAC, 6/22/2009, 1:45 pm
- Floater - JAC, 6/22/2009, 1:08 pm
- Cloud Tops: Over 200mb, good venting all directions - JAC, 6/22/2009, 10:40 am
- BOC: Convection firing in 15 knots of shear - JAC, 6/22/2009, 7:06 am
- Re: Time to start watching the GOM again this week? - CypressTX, 6/21/2009, 11:19 am
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