The Pacific High tell me otherwise
Posted by Mike_Doran on 7/15/2009, 11:38 am
Not sure I agree and I am not going to get into the electrics reasons why, but just talk about walker circulations.  The SOI index (the SO in ENSO) is dropping again but it's only to zero which to me means that there is too much energy being spent on the tropical entities and not the walker circulations.  And the past 30 days has a positive running SOI which is inconsistant with an El Nino.  Finally this time of year is the least predictive of what is going to happen down the road.  Clearly there are some warm anomalies but they aren't THAT warm:

12-Jul-2009    1014.63  1010.75    18.04      5.54    -0.96
  13-Jul-2009    1015.34  1011.25    19.33      6.84    -1.03
  14-Jul-2009    1015.29  1011.95    14.71      7.72    -1.00
  15-Jul-2009    1014.29  1012.85      3.02      7.65    -1.05

The biggest reading I can tell you about, however, you could get on our news channel this morning.  Big heat is building from the SW and the Pacific High is setting in.  What it will do is then send cold air from Canada to the mid CONUS and there will be thunderstorms in the 'alley'.  Bigtime pattern shift and I wouldn't be surprised if at the end of the day or so we see our first hint of a tropical storm in the Atlantic.



This is all happening just as the solar winds are dying down--making it more likely that a RI might occur.  There is also been some decent UV light too.

Another thing the alley is getting BTW is noctilucent clouds:

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East & West Pacific are cooking: - hanna, 7/14/2009, 2:12 pm
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