Interesting NOLA Discussion
Posted by JAC on 8/11/2009, 10:37 am
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
926 AM CDT TUE AUG 11 2009

LONG TERM...
THE EXTENDED IS WHERE THINGS START TO GET TRICKY. THE TROPICAL
WAVES ALONG 61W AND 51W LOOK LIKE THEY EVENTUALLY PHASE OVER THE
CARRIBEAN. WE SHOULD SEE THESE FLARE UP WITH ACTIVITY THROUGH THE
NEXT 36 HOURS WHICH WILL HELP DEFINE THEM A LITTLE BETTER. BUT IT
IS THESE OR THE UNIFIED FEATURE OF THESE THAT MOVES INTO THE GULF.
THE WAVE WILL INTERACT WITH THE OLD FRONTAL BOUNDARY OVER THE
NORTHERN GULF AND WEAKENING SHEAR ALOFT BY SAT NIGHT INTO SUN.
THIS IS WHERE WE FIND WHICH MODEL SOLUTION IS INITIALIZING BETTER
IF AT ALL. ALL DID A FAIRLY GOOD JOB YESTERDAY WHILE THE ECMWF IS
DOING A BETTER JOB THIS MORNING. WITH REGARDS TO THE CURRENT
SYNOPTIC PATTERN ALOFT...THE GFS CREATES TWO CENTERS AND ELONGATES
THE THE UPPER HIGH ALONG THE SOUTHEAST COAST. 00Z SOUNDINGS SHOW A
DISTINCT CENTER JUST OFF THE COAST OF SOUTH CAROLINA. THE GFS ALSO
SHOWS UPPER WINDS OF 10KT WHILE ACTUAL SPEEDS ARE 20KT. THE ECMWF
DOES A VERY GOOD JOB AT REPRESENTING THIS UPPER HIGH. THIS HIGH
WILL EVENTUALLY BUILD WESTWARD BLOCKING ANY DISTURBANCE FROM
HEADING NORTH UNTIL IT FINDS ITS WAY INTO THE GULF. THE MID LEVEL
RIDGE CONTINUES TO BUILD INTO THE EAST COAST AND CENTRAL PART OF
THE COUNTRY...ACCORDING TO THE ECMWF...FORCING ANY FEATURE THAT
WOULD DEVELOP INTO THE NORTH CENTRAL THEN NW GULF BY THE START OF
NEXT WEEK. OBVIOUSLY WITH A WEAKER RIDGE PATTERN FROM THE
GFS...THE FEATURE WOULD MOVE INTO FLA. SO ALL IN ALL...IT IS
SIMPLY SOMETHING TO CONTINUE WATCHING. HAVE NOT INCREASED RAIN
CHANCES FOR THIS FEATURE ON THIS PACKAGE. TO BRING POP NUMBERS UP
MORE...I WOULD LIKE TO SEE MORE AGREEMENT WITH SUCCESSIVE MODEL SOLUTIONS
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13N 48W - JAC, 8/10/2009, 2:00 pm
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