Re: Yes--large range of US Coast vulnerable for either or both systems
Posted by
jack ruby on 8/15/2009, 3:26 pm
You may not be that far off Doug. That probably south of what the long range (models of insanity) as some call them are saying now. But at this very early stage I favor a track somewhat further west and south than models are saying. I'm basing this on a couple of things.
a. Early model runs for ANA were fishy, and have since been moved west (if she survives).
b. Strong west trend with TD3-Bill (both in motion and speed) which may manifest in a more southerly course).
c. Climo--Still early in season. Often calls for a stronger west move, at least in early stage across Atlantic, before N begins to take hold.
d. MOST IMPORTANT--For last five to seven years long range models have tended to err by overly anticipating the north move (too early and too pronounced). In the shorter range (three days) this has usually been corrected. So if your gut tells you somewhat further south and west during the long range time frame, I don't blame you.
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Ana and the models .... -
LawKat,
8/15/2009, 11:47 am Post A Reply
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