Re: Models vs Steering Currents
Posted by
jack ruby on 8/16/2009, 9:10 pm
I can definitely see the overall model reasoning on the WV Loop. There is definite weakness to the NW of Bill (two upper level lows in the W ATlantic there). While directly north of Bill, the Azores HIgh remains strong, providing nice cap which is for now keeping it on a west course. Also this strong Azores Cap has probably provided stimulus for the intensificatin that occured this afternoon (even with the dry air). Often with strong high pressure to the north of a storm, we see intensification as the storm is pushed directly west. I THINK THERE MAY BE SOME JUSTIFICATION FOR THE UKMET SCENARIO. Here's why. The Azores High is very strong and tending westward right now with the storm (notice the upper level low furthest out in the Atlantic looks to be filling in some and weakening. So I actually think that today's strengthening (instead of precipitating a quick northerly turn, may actually herald strengthening westerly steering to the north of the storm. Now as Bill approaches the Leeward Islands, I tend to agree with the UKMET that there will be a shift to WNW but not NW as the other models say. There will continue to be some weakness to the north of the Bahamas, but I don't foresee a strong diving trough, to keep Bill completely off the coast. As has been mentioned earlier, we still have to watch for Azores-Bermuda building back toward the US later next week. Its still a distinct possiblity. But I'm getting ahead of myself. For the next 3-4 days, I think there is justification for looking at the UKMET model. Here's the WV Loop showing strong high (and I think expanding westward high) to the north of Bill, along with I think a weakening ULL to its northwest. General weakness, but not sharp troughing further down the road to its northwest. Will have to see how permanent that situation is. WV Loop.
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/goes/east/tatl/loop-wv.html |
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