Re: LINK??? n/t
Posted by
Cape_Fear_NC on 8/20/2009, 10:24 pm
First of all, Bastardi is only offering options; it's some of you viewers who are converting them into declarations. Neither Bastardi nor Accuweather are predicting a U.S. landfall - it is only that some of you listen only to what you want to hear and tune out what you don't want to hear. There's definitely room for improvement in critical thinking skills when it comes to Bastardi.
As for forecasting. The models have clearly improved over the years. This is natural in the course of human events because knowledge is cumulative. We will not see huge misses like we did decades ago simply because we're more knowledgeable today.
The laws of physics don't change. How hurricanes act doesn't change. It's only our understanding that changes - and it only improves.
When the models are all over the place, sure - anything can happen; but when they cluster around "A" - a person is foolish to expect "D." It just ain't gonna happen. So get used to it.
Tim in NC |
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