NOLA discussion - BL just about saturated
Posted by JAC on 9/4/2009, 9:53 am
AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW ORLEANS LA
801 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009

.UPDATE...
...SOUNDING DISCUSSION...

THE ATMOSPHERE IS SLIGHTLY UNSTABLE AND SLOWLY BECOMING MOIST WITH
THE BULK OF THE MOISTURE BELOW 750 MB...PRECIPITABLE WATER VALUE
IS 1.85 INCHES AND LIFTED INDEX IS -3.7. SCATTERED SHOWERS AND
THUNDERSTORMS ARE EXPECTED TO DEVELOP INLAND LATER IN THE DAY...A
FEW SHOWERS HAVE ALREADY DEVELOPED OVER THE COASTAL WATERS THIS
MORNING. A SURFACE INVERSION IS PRESENT ALONG WITH LIGHT AND
VARIABLE WINDS IN THE LOWER LEVELS AND WESTERLY WINDS ALOFT.

&&

.PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 425 AM CDT FRI SEP 4 2009/

SHORT TERM...
MOITURE IS RAPIDLY MOVING BACK INTO THE AREA THIS MORNING. WE
SHOULD GET A BETTER COVERAGE TODAY WITH HEATING THAN THE LAST
SEVERAL DAYS. THIS CONTINUES OVER THE WEEKEND AS BAROCLINICITY
INCREASES OVER THE WESTERN GULF. AN EASTERLY WAVE WILL INTERACT
WITH THE OLD FRONTAL AXIS TO HELP DEVELOP A LONG FETCH OF SH/TS
ACTIVITY FROM THE SW GULF INTO THE CENTRAL GULF COAST. A FEW
CONVECTIVE CIRCULATIONS LOOK TO DEVELOP WITH THE MOST INTENSE
BLOWUPS AND MOVE NE ALONG THE SFC FRONTAL BOUNDARY. THE FIRST OF
THESE WILL BE SEEN SUNDAY. CONFIDENCE IS LOW ON EXACTLY WHERE THE
BULK OF THE PRECIP WILL EVENTUALLY COME ASHORE BUT LOOKS TO BE
MAINLY FROM ALA BACK INTO THE EAST AREAS OF SE LA. BUT EVERYONE
WILL BE GETTING THEIR SHARE OF RAIN BY THE TIME THIS ONE IS IN THE
BOOKS.

LONG TERM...
IF A SFC LOW DOES FORM ON THE OLD BOUNDARY BY TUE NEAR THE AREA...IT
WILL LIKELY WAIT FOR THE SECOND STRONGER FORCING FEATURE PROVIDED BY
A QUICKLY DIGGING UPPER LONG WAVE TROUGH. THE LONG WAVE TROUGH IS
SUPPOSED TO MOVE IN BY NEXT WEEKEND. THE LINE OF DEEP TROPICAL
MOISTURE FLOWING INTO THE AREA ON A DAILY BASIS COULD SET UP SOME
HEAVY RAINFALL FOR SOME LOCATIONS. THIS IS SOMETHING THAT WILL
NEED TO BE WATCHED.

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Bottom of the Trof - just watching - JAC, 9/4/2009, 8:06 am
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