Expected to merge with 18W in 96 hrs
Posted by JAC on 9/29/2009, 6:50 am
290900Z POSITION NEAR 7.9N 138.4E.
TROPICAL STORM (TS) 19W (PARMA) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 115 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHEAST OF YAP, HAS TRACKED WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS THAT
CONVECTION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) HAS
PERSISTED, WITH CONTINUED RADIAL OUTFLOW, OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS.
THERE HAS BEEN A SLIGHT DECREASE IN TRACK SPEED WITH SOME INDICATION
THAT THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO TURN MORE WESTWARD IN THE LAST FEW
HOURS. THE CURRENT FORECAST PHILOSOPHY HAS THE SYSTEM TURNING TO THE
NORTHWEST AS IT TRACKS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW-
TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. INCREASING INTERACTION WITH TS 18W
IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE AS THE SEPARATION DISTANCE CONTINUES TO
DECREASE, WITH THE EVENTUAL CAPTURE OF TS 18W AROUND TAU 96. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 290600Z IS 15 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
291500Z, 292100Z, 300300Z AND 300900Z.





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WPAC: TD19W (Pre-PEPENG) could be another big-boy - JAC, 9/28/2009, 8:15 am
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