Major RI
Posted by JAC on 9/30/2009, 9:14 pm






TYPHOON (TY) 19W (PARMA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 700 NM EAST-SOUTH-
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT
15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS
THE SYSTEM HAS SIGNIFICANTLY DEEPENED WITH MULTIPLE CONVECTIVE BANDS
WRAPPING TIGHTER INTO A WELL-DEFINED EYE. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM
IS EXHIBITING EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE NORTH. CURRENT INTENSITY AND POSITION
ARE BASED ON DVORAK INTENSITY FIXES FROM PGTW AND RJTD. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS SOUTH OF THE RIDGE AXIS WITH A
DIVERGENT POINT SOURCE DIRECTLY OVERHEAD. TY 19W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
NORTHEAST. IT IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE ALONG THIS TRACK THROUGHOUT
THE FORECAST PERIOD AND SLOW DOWN IN FORWARD MOTION AFTER TAU 72
AS A WEAKNESS IN THE STEERING RIDGE DEVELOPS. FAVORABLE ENVIRON-
MENTAL CONDITIONS WILL ENSURE TYPHOON PARMA WILL CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS ALONG A CORRIDOR OF LOW TO MODERATE VERTICAL
WIND SHEAR AND INCREASING ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES.
AVAILABLE NUMERIC TRACK GUIDANCE ARE IN FAIR AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 48
WHERE THEY PROGRESSIVELY DIVERGE WITH JGSM AND TCLAPS TO THE EXTREME
RIGHT AND NOGAPS, WBAR, AND EGRR TO THE FAR LEFT. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS JUST TO THE LEFT OF THE MIDDLE OF THE ENVELOPE. MAXIMUM
SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 301800Z IS 25 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT
010300Z, 010900Z, 011500Z AND 012100Z. REFER TO TROPICAL DEPRESSION
18W (EIGHTEEN) WARNINGS (WTPN32 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES. REFER
TO TROPICAL STORM 20W (MELOR) WARNINGS (WTPN34 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY
UPDATES.//
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In this thread:
WPAC: TD19W (Pre-PEPENG) could be another big-boy - JAC, 9/28/2009, 8:15 am
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