Latest JTWC: 145 knot winds
Posted by
JAC on 10/3/2009, 10:31 pm
WTPN34 PGTW 040300 MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING// RMKS/ 1. SUPER TYPHOON 20W (MELOR) WARNING NR 020 02 ACTIVE TROPICAL CYCLONES IN NORTHWESTPAC MAX SUSTAINED WINDS BASED ON ONE-MINUTE AVERAGE WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY --- WARNING POSITION: 040000Z --- NEAR 16.6N 142.3E MOVEMENT PAST SIX HOURS - 275 DEGREES AT 14 KTS POSITION ACCURATE TO WITHIN 025 NM POSITION BASED ON EYE FIXED BY SATELLITE PRESENT WIND DISTRIBUTION: MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 085 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT REPEAT POSIT: 16.6N 142.3E --- FORECASTS: 12 HRS, VALID AT: 041200Z --- 17.6N 139.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 145 KT, GUSTS 175 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 060 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 080 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 090 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 185 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 185 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 24 HR POSIT: 295 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 24 HRS, VALID AT: 050000Z --- 18.7N 136.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 140 KT, GUSTS 170 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 055 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 050 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 060 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 160 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 135 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 160 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 36 HR POSIT: 310 DEG/ 14 KTS --- 36 HRS, VALID AT: 051200Z --- 20.6N 134.5E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 130 KT, GUSTS 160 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 045 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 045 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 050 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 070 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 070 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 075 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 145 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 130 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 125 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 140 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 48 HR POSIT: 330 DEG/ 16 KTS --- EXTENDED OUTLOOK: 48 HRS, VALID AT: 060000Z --- 23.3N 132.8E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 120 KT, GUSTS 145 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 050 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 040 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 075 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 065 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 080 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 175 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 160 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 110 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 150 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 72 HR POSIT: 015 DEG/ 19 KTS --- 72 HRS, VALID AT: 070000Z --- 30.4N 135.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 100 KT, GUSTS 125 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY RADIUS OF 064 KT WINDS - 035 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 030 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 020 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 020 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 050 KT WINDS - 065 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 055 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 040 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 055 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT RADIUS OF 034 KT WINDS - 130 NM NORTHEAST QUADRANT 105 NM SOUTHEAST QUADRANT 075 NM SOUTHWEST QUADRANT 120 NM NORTHWEST QUADRANT VECTOR TO 96 HR POSIT: 045 DEG/ 22 KTS --- LONG RANGE OUTLOOK: NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 250 NM ON DAY 4 AND 350 NM ON DAY 5... AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY. --- 96 HRS, VALID AT: 080000Z --- 36.4N 143.2E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 070 KT, GUSTS 085 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY BECOMING EXTRATROPICAL VECTOR TO 120 HR POSIT: 050 DEG/ 38 KTS --- 120 HRS, VALID AT: 090000Z --- 45.0N 160.0E MAX SUSTAINED WINDS - 040 KT, GUSTS 050 KT WIND RADII VALID OVER OPEN WATER ONLY EXTRATROPICAL --- REMARKS: 040300Z POSITION NEAR 16.9N 141.6E. SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 20W (MELOR), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 210 NM WEST- NORTHWEST OF SAIPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 14 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS A 30 NM WIDE, CLOUD-FREE, VERY WELL-DEFINED WITH EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW TO ALL QUADRANTS. THE SYSTEM HAS CONTINUED TO TRACK GENERALLY WESTWARD AT AROUND 14 KNOTS ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE MID TO UPPER- LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE LOCATED TO THE NORTH. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 040000Z IS 39 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 040900Z, 041500Z, 042100Z AND 050300Z. REFER TO TYPHOON 19W (PARMA) WARNINGS (WTPN33 PGTW) FOR SIX-HOURLY UPDATES.// NNNN
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In this thread:
Melor the Monster - a solid Cat5, 914mb and dropping -
JAC,
10/3/2009, 9:25 pm- Forecast now is for Cat2 at landfall near Hamamatsu - JAC, 10/6/2009, 7:27 am
- Possible Cat1 hit for Tokyo - shear dropping along forecasted track - JAC, 10/5/2009, 7:27 am
- Now 8C Core - still Cat5 - JAC, 10/5/2009, 7:17 am
- Jim Edds chasing Melor on Saipan - JAC, 10/4/2009, 10:07 pm
- Over 24 Hrs at Cat 5 - JAC, 10/4/2009, 9:25 pm
- Latest JTWC: 145 knot winds - JAC, 10/3/2009, 10:31 pm
- EURO shows direct hit on Japan - JAC, 10/3/2009, 10:27 pm
- A super hot-tower on the eyewall - JAC, 10/3/2009, 10:05 pm
- Could start eating dry air in about 24 hrs - JAC, 10/3/2009, 9:57 pm
- That's Hot - CX, 10/3/2009, 9:45 pm
- Continuing to Intensify - strong 37GHz Ring - JAC, 10/3/2009, 9:41 pm
- Strongest Outflow Channel is Equatorward - JAC, 10/3/2009, 9:38 pm
- Still Shooting Hot Towers in Feeder Bands - JAC, 10/3/2009, 9:36 pm
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