22W - Philippines could get hammered again
Posted by JAC on 10/15/2009, 7:21 am
   TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (TWENTYTWO), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 170 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 19 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH, THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF 40 KNOTS IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES (T2.5) AND RJTD (T1.5) DUE TO THE IMPROVED CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE (EVIDENT IN A 150400Z AMSRE MICROWAVE IMAGE). TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. BY TAU 48, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD TRACK SPEED AND TAKE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TEMPORARILY WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. BY TAU 96, TS 22W SHOULD RESUME ITS WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A REBUILT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS TS 22W MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA, SUFFICIENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT AND EXCELLENT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES WILL ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO INTENSIFY INTO A STRONG TYPHOON. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 150600Z IS 12 FEET. NEXT WARNINGS AT 151500Z, 152100Z, 160300Z AND 160900Z.// NNNN |
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In this thread:
- NASA Satellite Tracking Typhoon Lupit on a March Toward the Northern Philippines - JAC, 10/16/2009, 4:26 pm
- JTWC Forecast: Cat4 Luzon - JAC, 10/16/2009, 7:43 am
- Lupit is one nasty looking storm. - hanna, 10/15/2009, 8:11 pm
- Most excellent core - JAC, 10/16/2009, 7:36 am
- ADT - JAC, 10/15/2009, 2:49 pm
- Guam Discussion - JAC, 10/15/2009, 7:37 am
- CMC - JAC, 10/15/2009, 7:28 am
- WPAC Hot-Tower Power - JAC, 10/15/2009, 7:25 am
- Re: WPAC Hot-Tower Power - hanna, 10/15/2009, 8:08 pm
- Should spin up fast, maybe RI within 48 hrs - JAC, 10/15/2009, 7:33 am
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