ADT
Posted by JAC on 10/15/2009, 2:49 pm
http://rammb.cira.colostate.edu/products/tc_realtime/4kmsrbdc_loop.asp?storm_identifier=WP222009&starting_image=2009WP22_4KMSRBDC_200910140157.jpg MSGID/GENADMIN/NAVMARFCSTCEN PEARL HARBOR HI/JTWC// SUBJ/PROGNOSTIC REASONING FOR TROPICAL STORM 22W (TWENTYTWO)// WARNING NR 007// RMKS/ 1. FOR METEOROLOGISTS. 2. 12 HOUR SUMMARY AND ANALYSIS. A. TROPICAL STORM (TS) 22W (TWENTYTWO) IS LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 275 NM WEST-SOUTHWEST OF GUAM AND HAS TRACKED WESTWARD ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AT 17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS MULTIPLE BANDS OF DEEP CONVECTION STARTING TO WRAP INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY ALSO DEPICTS VERY GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL LOCATED TO THE NORTHEAST OF THE SYSTEM. AS SUCH, THE SYSTEM HAS STEADILY INTENSIFIED OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS AND IS NOW AT 45 KNOTS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW AND KNES (T3.0) AS WELL AS A 150800Z SATCON ESTIMATE WHICH INCLUDED AN AUTOMATED DVORAK VALUE OF T3.1. DUE TO DEEP, CENTRAL CONVECTION, THE CURRENT POSITION IS PLACED WITH RELATIVELY LOW CONFIDENCE WEST OF THE PGTW POSITION FIX, EAST OF THE RJTD POSITION FIX, AND SUPPORTED BY THE 150956Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE (WHICH ALSO REVEALS THE CONVECTIVE ORGANIZATION AND DEVELOPED LOW LEVEL SIGNATURE). 3. FORECAST REASONING. A. THE FORECAST REASONING HAS NOT CHANGED SINCE THE PREVIOUS PROGNOSTIC REASONING BULLETIN. B. TS 22W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS. BY TAU 36, THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLOW IN FORWARD TRACK SPEED AND TAKE A MORE POLEWARD TRACK AS A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TEMPORARILY WEAKENS THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE. WHILE TRACKING WESTWARD, TS 22W WILL REMAIN IN A FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT CHARACTERIZED BY MINIMAL VERTICAL WIND SHEAR, GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO THE TUTT AND EXCELLENT OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES IN EXCESS OF 100 J/KG/CM^2. C. BY TAU 72, TS 22W SHOULD RESUME ITS WESTWARD TRACK UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A REBUILT SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. AS TS 22W MAKES ITS WAY THROUGH THE PHILIPPINE SEA, THE SYSTEM SHOULD CONTINUE TO STEADILY INTENSIFY AS THE ENVIRONMENT IS FORECAST TO REMAIN FAVORABLE. THE NUMERICAL MODEL AIDS ARE IN VERY GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A JOG TO THE NORTHWEST DUE TO THE MID-LATITUDE TROUGH AS WELL AS A RETURN TO A MORE WESTWARD TRACK IN THE EXTENDED TAUS. HOWEVER, THE AIDS DO VARY ON THE TIMING OF INTERACTION AND THE DEGREE TO WHICH THE TROUGH WILL AFFECT THE TRACK OF 22W. THE NOGAPS MODEL, FOR EXAMPLE, DEPICTS A DEEPER TROUGH THAT WILL ENABLE THE SYSTEM TO GAIN MORE LATITUDE BEFORE TURNING WESTWARD WHILE THE UKMO MODEL INDICATES A SHALLOW TROUGH AND TRACK ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE AIDS ENVELOPE. THIS FORECAST LEANS TOWARD THE JTWC CONSENSUS AND ECMWF SOLUTIONS WHICH CALL FOR THE TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF THE SUB- TROPICAL RIDGE (BUT NOT DIG TO THE EXTENT OF THE NOGAPS MODELS AND THEREFORE DO NOT PULL THE SYSTEM AS FAR NORTH) AND SLOW THE SYSTEM'S TRACK SPEED BETWEEN TAUS 36 AND 72.// NNNN |
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In this thread:
22W - Philippines could get hammered again - JAC, 10/15/2009, 7:21 am
- NASA Satellite Tracking Typhoon Lupit on a March Toward the Northern Philippines - JAC, 10/16/2009, 4:26 pm
- JTWC Forecast: Cat4 Luzon - JAC, 10/16/2009, 7:43 am
- Lupit is one nasty looking storm. - hanna, 10/15/2009, 8:11 pm
- Most excellent core - JAC, 10/16/2009, 7:36 am
- Guam Discussion - JAC, 10/15/2009, 7:37 am
- CMC - JAC, 10/15/2009, 7:28 am
- WPAC Hot-Tower Power - JAC, 10/15/2009, 7:25 am
- Re: WPAC Hot-Tower Power - hanna, 10/15/2009, 8:08 pm
- Should spin up fast, maybe RI within 48 hrs - JAC, 10/15/2009, 7:33 am
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