Significant Coastal Flooding potential for the Florida Big Bend tues nite into Wednesday
Posted by chucky7777 on 11/30/2009, 4:10 am
NWS Tallahassee Discussion000
FXUS62 KTAE 300826
AFDTAE

AREA FORECAST DISCUSSION
NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TALLAHASSEE FL
326 AM EST MON NOV 30 2009
COASTAL FLOODING...THIS IS A SIGNIFICANT CONCERN. EASTERLY WINDS ON
TUESDAY NIGHT WILL FOCUS HIGHER WATER LEVELS INTO FRANKLIN COUNTY
AND THE WESTERN PORTION OF APALACHEE BAY. AS THE WINDS BEGIN TO
SHIFT TO A MORE SOUTHERLY COMPONENT ON WEDNESDAY MORNING...WATER
WILL BEGIN TO PILE UP INTO THE BAY. WITH THE PASSAGE OF THE SQUALL
LINE...MODELS ARE SHOWING SURGE HEIGHTS PEAKING BETWEEN 3 AND 4
FEET...CENTERED ON AN AREA OF SAINT MARKS DOWN TO CEDAR KEY. THIS
WILL RESULT IN STORM TIDES NEARING 7 TO 8 FEET ABOVE MEAN LOWER LOW
WATER. THIS IS SIMILAR OR SLIGHTLY HIGHER IN MAGNITUDE TO LEVELS
SEEN DURING HURRICANE GUSTAV BACK IN 2007. GIVEN THAT THE
ASTRONOMICAL TIDE CHARTS FOR APALACHEE BAY SHOW VERY LITTLE TIDAL
DIFFERENCE BETWEEN THE HIGH AND LOW TIDES ON WEDNESDAY...THE CONCERN
FOR A PROLONGED PERIOD OF INUNDATION ALONG THE COASTAL AREAS FROM
FRANKLIN COUNTY EASTWARD TO DIXIE COUNTY IS QUITE HIGH. THUS...EVEN
THOUGH IT IS 48 TO 60 HOURS AWAY...WILL GO AHEAD AND ISSUE A COASTAL
FLOOD WATCH TO HIGHLIGHT THIS SIGNIFICANT FLOOD POTENTIAL LATER THIS
MORNING.
IN SUMMARY...A MULTIFACETED HAZARDOUS WEATHER EVENT IS LIKELY TO
IMPACT THE REGION BEGINNING TUESDAY NIGHT AND CONTINUING THROUGH
WEDNESDAY. HEAVY RAIN AND COASTAL FLOODING LOOK TO BE THE MOST
CERTAIN IMPACTS AT THIS TIME. SEVERE WEATHER POTENTIAL IS
INCREASED...THOUGH THERE REMAINS SOME UNCERTAINTY IN THE EVENTUAL
THERMODYNAMIC ENVIRONMENT ACROSS THE REGION ON WEDNESDAY. EVERYONE
IS URGED TO MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS...WATCHES AND WARNINGS FROM
THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE ON THIS STORM SYSTEM.

96
In this thread:
Worse than Ida? Gulf Storm forecast for Tuesday/Wednesday - AlligatorPointer, 11/29/2009, 12:06 am
< Return to the front page of the: message board | monthly archive this page is in
Post A Reply
This thread has been archived and can no longer receive replies.