Ului could pack a punch when landfalls in Queensland
Posted by JAC on 3/17/2010, 7:44 am











TROPICAL CYCLONE (TC) 20P (ULUI), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM EAST-
NORTHEAST OF CAIRNS, AUSTRALIA, HAS TRACKED SOUTHWESTWARD AT 01 KNOT
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES TC ULUI HAS ATTAINED A WELL-DEFINED, SYMMETRIC, VISIBLE
EYE OVER THE LAST 12 HOURS. HOWEVER, A 161951Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE
ALSO DEPICTS WANING DEEP CONVECTION THROUGHOUT THE SYSTEM DESPITE
ITS WELL-ORGANIZED STRUCTURE. ACCORDINGLY, DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM
ABRF AND KNES HAVE DROPPED AND THE SYSTEM HAS WEAKENED SLIGHTLY TO
105 KNOTS. THE SYSTEM IS CURRENTLY DRIFTING SOUTHWARD (TOWARDS A MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH-INDUCED WEAKNESS IN THE RIDGE) IN A COMPETING
STEERING ENVIRONMENT CREATED BY THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE
SOUTHWEST AND THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE TO THE NORTHEAST. THE TROUGH
WILL PUSH DOWNSTREAM WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO 24 HOURS, ALLOWING THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO RE-ESTABLISH ITSELF TO THE SOUTH OF THE TC.
THIS WILL ENABLE TC ULUI TO TURN WEST TOWARDS THE NORTHEAST COAST OF
AUSTRALIA AFTER TAU 36. THE INTENSITY SHOULD HOVER AROUND 100 KNOTS
WITH ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS REMAINING FAIRLY CONSTANT THROUGH THE
FIRST 72 HOURS BEFORE SLOWLY WEAKENING DUE TO DECREASING POLEWARD
OUTFLOW AND LESS FAVORABLE OCEAN HEAT CONTENT VALUES. THE FORECAST
CLOSELY FOLLOWS THE MODEL CONSENSUS, WHICH HAS CHANGED LITTLE OVER
THE LAST DAY. MAXIMUM SIGNIFICANT WAVE HEIGHT AT 170000Z IS 27 FEET.
NEXT WARNINGS AT 171500Z AND 180300Z.





Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului is expected to continue moving in a southerly direction, and to remain well offshore tonight and during Thursday.

On Friday the cyclone is expected to turn west-southwest and begin moving closer to the Queensland coast. On current predictions the most likely scenario is for the cyclone to impact the central Queensland coast during the weekend. However, it is important to understand that some uncertainty remains in this outlook period.

The windy conditions over much of the Queensland east coastal waters will continue due to the tight pressure gradient generated by a combination of a high pressure system situated in the Tasman Sea and Severe Tropical Cyclone Ului. Seas and swell are expected to gradually increase along much of the Queensland east coast and produce dangerous surf conditions on the exposed coasts.


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Ului could pack a punch when landfalls in Queensland - JAC, 3/17/2010, 7:44 am
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