latest Ului Advisory and discussion link to Brisbane Tropical Cyclone Warning Center...........
Posted by chucky7777 on 3/19/2010, 7:33 am
TROPICAL CYCLONE ADVICE NUMBER 6
Issued by the Bureau of Meteorology, Brisbane
Issued at 5:15pm EST on Friday the 19th of March 2010

A Cyclone WARNING has been declared for coastal areas from Ayr to Yeppoon.
A Cyclone WATCH continues for coastal areas from Cardwell to Ayr, extending to
adjacent inland parts.

At 4:00 pm EST Tropical Cyclone Ului, Category 2 was estimated to be
850 kilometres east northeast of Mackay and
1010 kilometres east northeast of Townsville and
moving southwest at 15 kilometres per hour.

Tropical Cyclone Ului, category two intensity, is moving to the southwest
towards the Queensland coast.

The most likely scenario is for the cyclone to cross the coast Sunday morning
between Cardwell and Mackay and it may remain at category 2 intensity by
landfall.

Damaging winds should develop between Ayr and Yeppoon later on Saturday, then
increase further and extend to Cardwell and to adjacent inland parts on Sunday
morning as the cyclone nears the coast.

Seas and swell are expected to increase along much of the Queensland east coast.
Dangerous surf conditions are expected to develop about exposed beaches south of
the cyclone tonight and Saturday. A separate Severe Weather Warning is current
for these conditions.

People between Ayr and Yeppoon should immediately commence or continue
preparations, especially securing boats and property using available daylight
hours.
People between Cardwell and Ayr and adjacent inland parts should consider what
action they will need to take if the cyclone threat increases.
- Information is available from your local government
- For cyclone preparedness and safety advice, visit Queensland's Disaster
Management Services
website [www.disaster.qld.gov.au].
- For emergency assistance call the Queensland State Emergency Service [SES] on
132 500 [for assistance with storm damage, rising flood water, fallen trees on
buildings or roof damage]

Details of Tropical Cyclone Ului at 4:00 pm EST:
.Centre located near...... 17.4 degrees South 156.2 degrees East
.Location accuracy........ within 30 kilometres
.Recent movement.......... towards the southwest at 15 kilometres per hour
.Wind gusts near centre... 140 kilometres per hour
.Severity category........ 2
.Central pressure......... 984 hectoPascals

Please ensure that neighbours have heard and understood this message,
particularly new arrivals or those who may not fully understand English.

The next advice will be issued by 8:00 pm EST Friday 19 March.


TROPICAL CYCLONE TECHNICAL BULLETIN: AUSTRALIA - EASTERN REGION
Issued by BRISBANE TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNING CENTRE
at: 0729 UTC 19/03/2010
Name: Tropical Cyclone Ului
Identifier: 09U
Data At: 0600 UTC
Latitude: 17.4S
Longitude: 156.2E
Location Accuracy: within 15 nm [30 km]
Movement Towards: southwest [221 deg]
Speed of Movement: 8 knots [15 km/h]
Maximum 10-Minute Wind: 55 knots [100 km/h]
Maximum 3-Second Wind Gust: 75 knots [140 km/h]
Central Pressure: 984 hPa
Radius of 34-knot winds NE quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SE quadrant: 150 nm [280 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds SW quadrant: 180 nm [335 km]
Radius of 34-knot winds NW quadrant: 70 nm [130 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NE quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SE quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds SW quadrant: 60 nm [110 km]
Radius of 48-knot winds NW quadrant: 30 nm [55 km]
Radius of 64-knot winds:
Radius of Maximum Winds: 25 nm [45 km]
Dvorak Intensity Code: T3.0/3.5/W1.5/24HRS
Pressure of outermost isobar: 1004 hPa
Radius of outermost closed isobar: 240 nm [445 km]
Storm Depth: Deep
FORECAST DATA
Date/Time : Location : Loc. Accuracy: Max Wind : Central Pressure
[UTC] : degrees : nm [km]: knots[km/h]: hPa
+12: 19/1800: 18.7S 154.3E: 045 [085]: 055 [100]: 983
+24: 20/0600: 19.6S 151.9E: 075 [140]: 050 [095]: 986
+36: 20/1800: 20.1S 149.2E: 105 [195]: 050 [095]: 987
+48: 21/0600: 20.5S 146.6E: 135 [250]: 030 [055]: 1000
+60: 21/1800: 20.5S 144.3E: 165 [305]: 025 [045]: 1003
+72: 22/0600: 20.1S 142.2E: 195 [360]: 020 [035]: 1006
REMARKS:
Tropical Cyclone Ului has weakened in the last 24 hours due to northwesterly
wind shear of about 20 knots. Dvorak analysis based on shear pattern, the low
level circulation being witihin 0.5 of convection yielding a DT of 3.0,
MET/PT=2.5, DT=3.0 with CI being held higher at 3.5 and max wind at 55 knots.
This is consistent with latest AMSU estimates.

Models remain very consistent with the forecast track shifting more to the west
southwest on Saturday and crossing the coast between Townsville and Mackay on
Sunday morning, steered by the mid-level ridge to the south. As a result, there
is a higher than normal confidence in the track forecast.

Forecast intensity is held at category two through to landfall based on the
prospect of the shear easing during Saturday, arresting the weakening trend. It
remains possible that the Dvorak based intensity may decrease further in the
short term, the combination of convection persisting to the south aided by WSW
movement of 10 knots is expected to maintain the maximum winds of at least 50
knots to the south of the system.

Copyright Commonwealth of Australia
==
The next bulletin for this system will be issued by: 19/1300 UTC by Brisbane
TCWC.http://www.bom.gov.au/products/IDQ65002.shtml
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In this thread:
Ului could pack a punch when landfalls in Queensland - JAC, 3/17/2010, 7:44 am
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