Next possible severe event 4/29 to 4/30 Southern Plains
Posted by JAC on 4/26/2010, 12:42 pm


ZCZC SPCSWOD48 ALL
  ACUS48 KWNS 260728
  SPC AC 260728
 
  DAY 4-8 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0228 AM CDT MON APR 26 2010
 
  VALID 291200Z - 041200Z
 
  ...DISCUSSION...
  SUBSTANTIAL DIFFERENCES PERSIST BETWEEN THE GFS AND ECMWF -- EVEN AS
  EARLY AS DAY 4 /THU. APR. 29/ -- IN TERMS OF EVOLUTION AND TIMING OF
  THE WRN TROUGH MOVING INTO THE CENTRAL CONUS.  AS A RESULT OF THESE
  DIFFERENCES ALOFT...THE FASTER GFS MOVES A COLD FRONT ACROSS THE SRN
  PLAINS BY THE END OF DAY 4 /12Z FRI. APR. 30/...WITH THE BOUNDARY
  EXTENDING FROM ERN MO SSWWD ACROSS CENTRAL AR...WRN LA...AND THEN
  SWWD ALONG THE TX COAST.  MEANWHILE...THE SLOWER ECMWF DEPICTS THIS
  FRONT CROSSING WRN PORTIONS OF THE SRN PLAINS OVERNIGHT...EXTENDING
  FROM CENTRAL KS SSWWD ACROSS WRN OK AND INTO THE TX BIG BEND REGION
  BY THE END OF DAY 4.
 
  WHILE THESE DIFFERENCES PRECLUDE THE ISSUANCE OF ANY OUTLOOK AREAS
  BEYOND DAY 4...ATTM WILL RE-INTRODUCE AN AREA FOR DAY 4...CENTERED
  ON SERN KS/OK/N TX.  WHILE THE MODEL DIFFERENCES ARE
  SUBSTANTIAL...AGREEMENT EXISTS THAT A RETURN OF DECENT GULF MOISTURE
  NWD ACROSS OK WILL OCCUR...WHICH SHOULD LEAD TO AMPLE
  DESTABILIZATION.  WHILE STORM DEVELOPMENT ACROSS WRN KS/WRN OK/WRN N
  TX DURING THE AFTERNOON WOULD LIKELY BE TIED MORE TO THE SYNOPTIC
  COLD FRONT ACCORDING TO THE GFS ...THE ECMWF SUGGESTS THAT A DRYLINE
  SHOULD MIX EWD TO A SIMILAR LOCATION -- PROVIDING SOME CONFIDENCE IN
  THE LOCATION OF THE PRIMARY CORRIDOR OF CONVECTIVE POTENTIAL.  GIVEN
  THAT FLOW ALOFT WILL YIELD SHEAR FAVORABLE FOR
  SUPERCELLS...CONFIDENCE IS SUFFICIENT TO HIGHLIGHT AN AREA OF
  ENHANCED SEVERE POTENTIAL.
 
  ..GOSS.. 04/26/2010
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Next possible severe event 4/29 to 4/30 Southern Plains - JAC, 4/26/2010, 12:42 pm
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