SREF confirms strong STP chances for OK, KS later Thursday Evening - Capping will be Key
Posted by JAC on 4/28/2010, 12:18 pm
It is looking like maybe northern part of mid-section of OK could be trouble late Thursday.

Won't be a lot of cloud cover during the day here.

Surface heating could break a strong cap late in the day.

CAPE forecasted to be over 2000 then and moderately strong helicity in place.

Supercells could pop quickly here and maybe very strong if they do.

A strong-lapse rate will move into the area then which will help parcel acceleration.






...SRN PLAINS...
 
  THREAT IN THIS AREA IS MORE CONDITIONAL DUE TO LOWER PROBABILITY OF
  THUNDERSTORM INITIATION. THE ATMOSPHERE WILL BECOME MODERATELY
  UNSTABLE DURING THE AFTERNOON AS PARTIALLY MODIFIED GULF AIR ADVECTS
  NWD BENEATH STEEP LAPSE RATES ASSOCIATED WITH EML PLUME. HOWEVER...A
  STOUT CAPPING INVERSION WILL EXIST OVER MUCH OF THE WARM SECTOR. IN
  WAKE OF IMPULSE MOVING THROUGH THE CNTRL PLAINS AND UPPER MS VALLEY
  REGION...DRYLINE CONVERGENCE WILL NOT BE PARTICULARLY PRONOUNCED.
  HOWEVER...HEATING AND MIXING ALONG THIS BOUNDARY MIGHT BE SUFFICIENT
  TO INITIATE AN ISOLATED STORM OR TWO. IF A STORM DEVELOPS IT WOULD
  RAPIDLY BECOME SUPERCELLULAR GIVEN THE STRONG VERTICAL SHEAR IN
  PLACE. GREATER PROBABILITY FOR STORM INITIATION WILL OCCUR LATER
  THURSDAY NIGHT WHEN THE PACIFIC FRONT ACCOMPANYING A SPEED MAX
  MOVING THROUGH BASE OF UPPER TROUGH OVERTAKES THE DRYLINE.

















 
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Next possible severe event 4/29 to 4/30 Southern Plains - JAC, 4/26/2010, 12:42 pm
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