Get Ready KS & OK
Posted by JAC on 5/8/2010, 8:02 am
DAY 3 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  0227 AM CDT SAT MAY 08 2010
 
  VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO
  THE MID-MS VLY...
 
  ...SYNOPSIS...
  THE MID-LVL WAVE LOCATED OVER THE GRT BASIN LATE IN THE WEEKEND WILL
  EJECT ACROSS THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS AS A NEGATIVE-TILT TROUGH ON
  MONDAY AS THE NEXT IMPULSE DROPS SEWD TO THE PAC NW.  AT THE SFC...A
  LEE LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER ERN CO THEN MOVE ACROSS NRN KS BY MONDAY
  EVENING THEN TO SRN IA BY 12Z TUESDAY.  A DRYLINE WILL MIX EWD TO
  THE S OF THE LOW...REACHING WRN KS AND THE TX/OK BORDER AREA BY
  EARLY AFTN MONDAY...THEN INTO CNTRL KS AND WRN OK BY EVENING.  TO
  THE E...A WRMFNT WILL CONTINUE TO DEVELOP NWD INTO THE MID-MS VLY.
 
  ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VLY...
  MONDAY STILL HAS THE POTENTIAL TO BE AN ACTIVE WEATHER DAY WITH
  STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE...PARTICULARLY OVER
  CNTRL/SCNTRL KS AND EXTREME NWRN/NCNTRL OK.
 
  BANDS/CLUSTERS OF ELEVATED TSTMS ARE EXPECTED TO BE ONGOING EARLY
  MONDAY ACROSS PORTIONS OF ERN KS/OK OWING TO A ROBUST WAA REGIME
  WITHIN A BROAD 45-50 KT SSWLY LLJ.  THIS ACTIVITY MAY PROVE
  PROBLEMATIC FOR A NWD EXPANSION OF THE WARM SECTOR MONDAY AFTN AND
  THIS UNCERTAINTY WAS THE PRIMARY REASON FOR NOT UPGRADING TO A MDT
  RISK.
 
  CONFIDENCE REMAINS SUFFICIENTLY HIGH...HOWEVER...IN THE RETURN OF
  MID/UPR 60S BOUNDARY LAYER DEW POINTS E OF THE DRYLINE/TRIPLE POINT
  INTO AT LEAST SWRN KS BY AFTN.  DRYLINE CIRCULATION WILL DEEPEN WITH
  APPROACH OF THE UPR TROUGH BY MID-AFTN AND STRONG HEATING WILL ERODE
  CINH FOR TSTM INITIATION...MOSTLY LIKELY IN WRN KS.  FARTHER
  S...CINH WILL BE STRONGER AND LARGE SCALE FORCING COMPARATIVELY
  WEAKER ACROSS WRN OK.  BUT...ISOLD STORM DEVELOPMENT CANNOT BE RULED
  OUT AS FAR S AS WRN OK/RED RIVER.
 
  EFFECTIVE SHEAR IN EXCESS OF 55 KTS AND THE ORIENTATION OF VECTORS
  PERPENDICULAR TO THE DRYLINE WILL STRONGLY SUPPORT SUPERCELLS.  FCST
  HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT STRONGLY VEERING LOW-LEVEL WINDS WITH THE
  COMPLETE VERTICAL PROFILE SIGNATURES INDICATIVE OF HISTORIC STRONG
  TORNADIC CASES.  VERY LARGE HAIL WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE.
 
  AS MENTIONED BEFORE...IT IS UNCLEAR HOW FAR N AND E THE QUALITY WARM
  SECTOR WILL EXPAND.  THE MAXIMUM TORNADO THREAT MAY REALISTICALLY BE
  IN NARROW ZONE ACROSS SCNTRL/CNTRL KS INTO NCNTRL OK BEFORE STORMS
  MOVE TOWARD A MORE STABLE LOW-LEVEL ENVIRONMENT.  LATER OUTLOOKS CAN
  ADDRESS THIS UNCERTAINTY.
 
  OTHERWISE...STORMS WILL LIKELY DEVELOP INTO ONE OR MORE MCS/S AND
  DEVELOP/MOVE ENE TOWARD THE MID-MS VLY OVERNIGHT WITH LARGE HAIL THE
  PRIMARY THREAT.
 
  ..RACY.. 05/08/2010
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Monday 5/10 - Potential Severe Outbreak Central Plains - JAC, 5/6/2010, 7:16 am
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