LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES EXPECTED MONDAY LATE AFTN/EVENING
Posted by JAC on 5/9/2010, 7:57 am


DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1236 AM CDT SUN MAY 09 2010
 
  VALID 101200Z - 111200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A MDT RISK OF SVR TSTMS ACROSS NCNTRL/NE OK...SCNTRL/SE
  KS AND EXTREME SW MO...
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO
  THE MID-MS VLY...
 
  ***SUPERCELLS WITH LONG-TRACK STRONG TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL
  EXPECTED MONDAY LATE AFTN/EVENING ACROSS PARTS OF CNTRL/N OK...SE KS
  AND SW MO***
 
  ...CNTRL/SRN PLAINS TO THE MID-MS VLY...
  WATER VAPOR SHOWS A HEALTHY MID-LVL SHORTWAVE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
  CNTRL/NRN CA COAST SUNDAY MORNING.  FEATURE WILL REACH THE
  FOUR-CORNERS REGION MONDAY MORNING AND THE CNTRL/SRN PLAINS BY
  EVENING.  SFC LOW WILL INTENSIFY OVER SCNTRL KS MONDAY AFTN BEFORE
  TRANSLATING TO N MO BY 12Z TUESDAY.  TO THE S OF THE LOW...A DRYLINE
  WILL MIX EWD INTO SCNTRL KS AND WRN PARTS OF TX/OK DURING THE AFTN
  AND BE THE IMPETUS FOR TSTM INITIATION.
 
  THERE STILL REMAINS A SLIGHT AMOUNT OF UNCERTAINTY WITH RESPECT TO
  TROUGH TIMING/SFC FEATURE PLACEMENT AND GFS REMAINS ON THE ERN EDGE
  OF THE ENVELOPE OF SOLUTIONS.  CANNOT DISCOUNT THAT IDEA COMPLETELY
  GIVEN HOW MOBILE/ZONAL THE FLOW REGIME WILL BECOME IN THE NEXT 24-48
  HOURS AND CURRENT DAY 2 OTLK WILL INCLUDE ELEMENTS OF BOTH 00Z
  NAM/GFS...MOST LIKE THE 12Z ECMWF.  
 
  ELEVATED CONVECTION...WHICH MAY ALREADY BE PRODUCING LARGE HAIL
  ACROSS PORTIONS OF OK AND ERN KS MONDAY MORNING...SHOULD MOVE ENE
  TOWARD THE MID-MS VLY DURING THE AFTN.  AIR MASS SHOULD RECOVER
  RAPIDLY IN WAKE OF THESE STORMS WITH MONDAY AFTN MID-60S SFC DEW
  POINTS SURGING NWD THROUGH OK AND INTO SCNTRL KS.  CINH...RATHER
  STRONG INITIALLY...SHOULD WEAKEN WITH THE APPROACH OF DCVA...
  DEEPENING DRYLINE CIRCULATION AND STRONG HEATING.  TSTM INITIATION
  WILL OCCUR MID-LATE AFTN...MOST LIKELY IN SCNTRL KS AND NCNTRL
  OK...WITH MORE ISOLD STORMS FARTHER S ALONG THE LENGTH OF THE
  DRYLINE INTO SWRN OK AND W TX.  
 
  AS STORMS MOVE OUT OF THE DRYLINE CIRCULATION...LARGELY
  PERPENDICULAR DEEP-LAYER WIND VECTORS...MLCAPES TO 3000 J/KG AND
  EFFECTIVE SHEAR 50-70 KTS WILL FAVOR DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WITH VERY
  LARGE HAIL.  FCST HODOGRAPHS EXHIBIT VERY STRONG LOW-LEVEL SRH IN
  EXCESS OF 400 M2/S2 AND GIVEN ANTICIPATED STORM MODE...INCREASE IN
  THE NOCTURNAL EVENING LLJ AND LOWERING LCL/S...LONG-TRACK STRONG
  TORNADOES WILL BE POSSIBLE... PARTICULARLY FROM OK PORTION OF
  I-40/44 NWD INTO SCNTRL/SERN KS DURING THE EARLY EVENING.  
 
  WARM SECTOR WILL RAPIDLY RECOVER DOWNSTREAM OF EARLY EVENING
  ACTIVITY INTO SWRN MO AND SET-UP APPEARS CONDUCIVE TO SUPPORT
  DISCRETE SUPERCELLS WELL INTO THE EVENING.  EVENTUALLY...ACTIVITY
  WILL TRANSITION INTO LINES/CLUSTERS OVERNIGHT WITH DMGG
  WINDS...ISOLD TORNADOES AND LARGE HAIL PROBABILITIES AS FAR E AS THE
  MID-MS RVR VLY BY 12Z TUESDAY.  
 
  FARTHER S...SUPERCELLS THAT MAY FORM ACROSS SW OK INTO W TX WILL
  DIMINISH DURING THE EARLY EVENING AS STRONGER FORCING EXITS TO THE N
  OF THE REGION.
 
  ..RACY.. 05/09/2010
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Monday 5/10 - Potential Severe Outbreak Central Plains - JAC, 5/6/2010, 7:16 am
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