More Severe Weather Wednesday - MO, IA, IL
Posted by JAC on 5/11/2010, 12:15 pm





DAY 2 CONVECTIVE OUTLOOK  
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1251 AM CDT TUE MAY 11 2010
 
  VALID 121200Z - 131200Z
 
  ...THERE IS A SLGT RISK OF SVR TSTMS FROM THE PLAINS TO THE
  MIDWEST...
 
  ...PLAINS TO THE MIDWEST...
  UPR LOW DIGGING INTO THE SWRN STATES WILL TRANSLATE ENE AS A
  POSITIVE-TILT SYSTEM INTO THE CNTRL/NRN PLAINS ON WEDNESDAY.  A LEE
  LOW OVER THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS WILL BEGIN TO DEVELOP ENE INTO ERN KS
  AND TOWARD THE UPR MS VLY REGION BY 12Z THURSDAY.  TRAILING THE
  LOW...A CDFNT WILL STRENGTHEN AND BEGIN TO SURGE SEWD THROUGH THE
  PLAINS DURING THE LATE AFTN/NIGHT.  TO THE E...A WRMFNT WILL
  CONTINUE NWD THROUGH THE MID/UPR MS VLY AND MIDWEST.
 
  ...PLAINS TO MIDWEST...
  A MOIST BOUNDARY LAYER CHARACTERIZED BY MID-UPR 60S DEW POINTS WILL
  RECOVER NWD THROUGH OK/ERN KS INTO THE MID-MS VLY BENEATH A
  SUBSTANTIAL CAP THROUGH WEDNESDAY AFTN.  COMBINED WITH STRONG
  HEATING...RESULTANT MLCAPES SHOULD BE OVER 2000 J/KG.
 
  ALTHOUGH STRONGER FORCING FOR ASCENT IS NOT EXPECTED TO ARRIVE UNTIL
  EVENING...CONCERN FOR SFC-BASED TSTM DEVELOPMENT WILL INCREASE
  ALONG/S OF THE WRMFNT FROM ECNTRL KS INTO WCNTRL IL DURING PEAK
  HEATING.  VERTICAL SHEAR WILL BE MORE THAN SUFFICIENT FOR SUPERCELLS
  WITH VERY LARGE HAIL.  TORNADOES WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE GIVEN FCST
  HODOGRAPHS EXHIBITING STRONG LLVL SHEAR.  SOME OF THIS ACTIVITY WILL
  DEVELOP ENE AND BECOME ELEVATED INTO THE UPR MS VLY/UPR MIDWEST WITH
  AT LEAST ISOLD LARGE HAIL POSSIBLE.
 
  MEANWHILE...AS THE AFOREMENTIONED WAVE EJECTS ONTO THE
  PLAINS...INCREASING LOW/MID-LVL FRONTOGENETIC FORCING WITHIN
  ENTRANCE REGION OF THE UPR JET WILL RESULT IN ADDITIONAL TSTM
  DEVELOPMENT FROM CNTRL/ERN KS SWD INTO W TX NEAR/AFTER SUNSET.
  INITIAL STORMS MAY BRIEFLY ORGANIZE INTO SUPERCELLS...BUT THERE WILL
  BE A TENDENCY FOR A MORE ANAFRONTAL TYPE EVENT AS THE FRONT SURGES
  SEWD.  LARGE HAIL AND DMGG WIND GUSTS APPEAR TO BE THE PRIMARY SVR
  THREATS.  ACTIVITY WILL SLOWLY MOVE SEWD INTO THE PLAINS AND MID-MS
  VLY OVERNIGHT.
 
  ..RACY.. 05/11/2010
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More Severe Weather Wednesday - MO, IA, IL - JAC, 5/11/2010, 12:15 pm
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