OK & KS - Dryline
Posted by JAC on 5/12/2010, 3:50 pm
 MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0527 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 0221 PM CDT WED MAY 12 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...PARTS OF SERN KS / W-CNTRL OK CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...TORNADO WATCH LIKELY VALID 121921Z - 122015Z A LARGE PORTION OF SERN KS EXTENDING INTO W-CNTRL OK IS BEING MONITORED FOR THE ISSUANCE OF A TORNADO WATCH. RECENT SATELLITE TRENDS SHOW THE CU FIELD BECOMING MORE AGITATED IN THE PAST HOUR OR SO--ACROSS THE I-35 CORRIDOR IN S-CNTRL KS AND N-CNTRL OK AND AREAS IMMEDIATELY TO THE W AHEAD OF A SLOWLY MOVING BAROCLINIC ZONE. 19Z SURFACE ANALYSIS PLACES A SURFACE LOW OVER NWRN OK WITH A STALLED SURFACE FRONT LOCATED FROM 10 MI N HUT DRAPED NEWD TO THE KANSAS CITY METRO. A COLD FRONT EXHIBITING ANAFRONTAL CHARACTER IS SLOWLY BEGINNING TO PUSH EWD OVER PRATT COUNTY SWWD INTO NWRN OK AS THE UPSTREAM UPPER TROUGH EJECTS EWD INTO THE SRN HIGH PLAINS. A COMPLICATING FACTOR TO STORM INITIATION SCENARIO IS THE EWD PROGRESSION OF A GRAVITY WAVE FROM NEAR EMP SWWD TO CNTRL OK. STORMS THAT CAN MOVE OFF OF OR DEVELOP IMMEDIATELY AHEAD OF THE EWD MOVING COLD FRONT/DRYLINE AND REMAIN S OF THE STATIONARY FRONT IN THE WARM SECTOR WILL BE CAPABLE OF LARGE HAIL/DMMG WINDS AND AN ISOLD TORNADO. OTHERWISE...PREVIOUSLY DESCRIBED FRONTAL CHARACTER ACROSS S-CNTRL KS WILL LIKELY HAVE A DETRIMENTAL IMPACT UPON STORM LONGEVITY/SEVERITY AS MEAN FLOW IS LARGELY MORE PARALLEL TO THE FRONTAL BOUNDARY ACROSS THE I-135 CORRIDOR. REGARDLESS OF FEATURES/MECHANISMS SPAWNING CONVECTIVE INITIATION...A MOIST/MODERATE TO VERY UNSTABLE AIRMASS /2000-3500 MLCAPE/ ACCORDING TO 18Z OUN RAOB...IS CONTINUING TO DESTABILIZE WITH THE CAP EXPECTED TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN TOWARDS MID-AFTERNOON. LOW LEVEL FLOW /AOA 20 KTS 0-1 KM SHEAR/ HAS BEEN NOTED TO BE STRONGER FARTHER N AND E ACROSS SERN KS SWD INTO CNTRL OK PER RECENT AREA VWP/UPPER AIR DATA. MORE THAN ADEQUATE SHEAR PROFILES WILL BE SUPPORTIVE OF SUPERCELLS CAPABLE OF LARGE TO VERY LARGE HAIL...DMGG WINDS...AND ISOLD TORNADO OR TWO. ..SMITH.. 05/12/2010 |
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More Severe Weather Wednesday - MO, IA, IL - JAC, 5/11/2010, 12:15 pm
- Target Area: KS / MO Border - JAC, 5/12/2010, 6:07 am
- Cap should break early afternoon with 6000 CAPE & moderate helicity - JAC, 5/12/2010, 6:13 am
- Huge CAPE Advection with no cap. Large Helicity just to the north. - JAC, 5/11/2010, 12:24 pm
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