MD Discussion - Uncapped STP
Posted by JAC on 5/24/2010, 1:29 pm


MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0690
  NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK
  1155 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010
 
  AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL SD...WRN NEB
 
  CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY
 
  VALID 241655Z - 241830Z
 
  A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN
  NEB EXTENDING NNEWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL SD. ALONG WITH
  TORNADOES...THE MORE INTENSE CELLS SHOULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VERY
  LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED
  ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR.
 
  WATER VAPOR/RUC IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY
  MAX OVER SW KS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD
  INTO NE CO. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A
  MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE SSW AND SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY
  RESULT IN RAPID STORM INITIATION IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE
  LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT DISCRETE STORMS ARE INITIATING NEAR
  THE NEB-CO STATE-LINE AND THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND
  QUICKLY NWD ACROSS WRN NEB INTO WCNTRL SD THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL
  SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE MCD AREA AS A 40 TO 50 KT JET
  BECOMES MORE DEFINED AND SHIFTS NWWD. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP
  LAYER SHEAR...INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL
  CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MORE
  DOMINANT SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TORNADOES AND VERY
  LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE INTENSE
  STORMS.
 
  ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2010



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Another Rough Day for SD & NE Today - JAC, 5/24/2010, 10:12 am
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