MD Discussion - Uncapped STP
Posted by
JAC on 5/24/2010, 1:29 pm
MESOSCALE DISCUSSION 0690 NWS STORM PREDICTION CENTER NORMAN OK 1155 AM CDT MON MAY 24 2010 AREAS AFFECTED...WRN AND CNTRL SD...WRN NEB CONCERNING...SEVERE POTENTIAL...WATCH LIKELY VALID 241655Z - 241830Z A TORNADO THREAT IS EXPECTED TO DEVELOP THIS AFTERNOON ACROSS WRN NEB EXTENDING NNEWD INTO WRN AND CNTRL SD. ALONG WITH TORNADOES...THE MORE INTENSE CELLS SHOULD HAVE A POTENTIAL FOR VERY LARGE HAIL AND WIND DAMAGE. A TORNADO WATCH WILL LIKELY BE NEEDED ACROSS THE REGION OVER THE NEXT HOUR. WATER VAPOR/RUC IMAGERY CONTINUES TO SHOW A WELL-DEFINED VORTICITY MAX OVER SW KS WITH THE ASSOCIATED SHORTWAVE TROUGH EXTENDING NWWD INTO NE CO. THIS FEATURE ALONG WITH THE LEFT EXIT REGION OF A MID-LEVEL JET APPROACHING FROM THE SSW AND SFC HEATING WILL LIKELY RESULT IN RAPID STORM INITIATION IN THE CNTRL HIGH PLAINS. THE LATEST RADAR TRENDS SUGGEST THAT DISCRETE STORMS ARE INITIATING NEAR THE NEB-CO STATE-LINE AND THESE STORMS ARE EXPECTED TO EXPAND QUICKLY NWD ACROSS WRN NEB INTO WCNTRL SD THIS AFTERNOON. LOW-LEVEL SHEAR WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE IN THE MCD AREA AS A 40 TO 50 KT JET BECOMES MORE DEFINED AND SHIFTS NWWD. THIS COMBINED WITH STRONG DEEP LAYER SHEAR...INCREASING SFC DEWPOINTS AND MODERATE INSTABILITY WILL CREATE AN ENVIRONMENT VERY FAVORABLE FOR SUPERCELLS. THE MORE DOMINANT SUPERCELLS SHOULD BE ABLE TO PRODUCE TORNADOES AND VERY LARGE HAIL. WIND DAMAGE WILL ALSO BE POSSIBLE WITH MORE INTENSE STORMS. ..BROYLES.. 05/24/2010
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In this thread:
Another Rough Day for SD & NE Today -
JAC,
5/24/2010, 10:12 am- Cool Pictures - JAC, 5/25/2010, 7:05 am
- Steve Miller chasing nasty tornado-warned cell NE of Amarillo - JAC, 5/24/2010, 5:50 pm
- Tornado near Woods KS - JAC, 5/24/2010, 3:31 pm
- A widespread event - TX to MN - JAC, 5/24/2010, 3:15 pm
- High Risk for Tornadoes - JAC, 5/24/2010, 1:35 pm
- MD Discussion - Uncapped STP - JAC, 5/24/2010, 1:29 pm
- Shear mostly wind-speed variation with height (limited helicity). Cap breaks mid afternoon. - JAC, 5/24/2010, 10:33 am
- Strong Negative Tilt & Surface Low - JAC, 5/24/2010, 10:27 am
- RUC: Sharp height falls. Uncapped CAPE = 3500 - JAC, 5/24/2010, 10:20 am
- SREF - Strong forecasted shear - JAC, 5/24/2010, 10:17 am
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