Re: And.... the #1 City on Jim's Pick List is..................
Posted by
Jake on 6/2/2010, 10:37 pm
Jack,
You always bring a sound and thorough analysis to the table, with no hype. As to your question regarding the potential strength of the sub-tropical ridge, its to early to call.
I concur with your point on the large shifts in the long wave troughs as we get later into the hurricane season. However, this occurs when the sub-tropical ridge is weak due to large scale troughing eroding the western periphery. Keep in mind that these shifts are reduced when a stronger ridge persists, therefore, systems can continue further west without recurveture.
Although my forecast is not set in stone, it does show on average how long mid-level ridging is holding when a hurricane passing through 60-65 deg long. This is the general area systems like to begin a more pronounced poleward motion, due to a persistent long wave trough in the means sending deep layer short wave troughs rotating around the base. Here's the key, I have been able to target years when the ridge holds for a week or longer that systems passing through 20-25N and 60-65W continue heading towards the US. Finally, when more storms form, its more likely they will move under that ridge on a WNW deep layer flow. |
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