Re: Look like the Carib TUTT is Breaking Up
Posted by JAC on 6/12/2010, 9:41 pm
The TUTT has been anchored over east Cuba for the past few days.

That pretty much wiped out the ability of the waves in the Carib to spin up.

UL winds looks like it may now be dissipating.

As a result shear has come down particularly fast in the Bahamas.

There still is a jet farther south of the TUTT that could get in the way of 92L.

Need to see how it progresses in the next 48 hrs.

I am thinking 92L may combine with the high-amp wave that came off Africa yesterday.

This could do a Fuji spin of the two, causing 92L to slightly retro to the NE and then shoot off to the NW.

I would say track is highly uncertain at this point.

Forecasting CONUS shortwaves that could recurve it is nearly impossible two to three days out.

UL air over CONUS is still relatively cold (still a big pocket of 700mb air less than 10C) and a lot of moist boundary layer air.

What that all means is that a surface low or front could pop up almost any time and then sweep off the coast.

In fact SREF yesterday was showing hardly any convection coming thru Indy here.

Today we just had a nice MCS come thru due to daytime heating.




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Look like the Carib TUTT is Breaking Up - JAC, 6/12/2010, 4:44 pm
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