Re: Not good at accessing models
Posted by JAC on 6/26/2010, 10:05 am
Three things are pulling on Alex.

The earth's rotation.  This is the same as gyroscopic precession.
The faster Alex spins, the more he is forced to turn north.

The Bermuda High how it is changing with time.
Here, look at 500mb heights and you can judge how the Bermuda High may be eroding from a strong low off the NE Coast.
This is 24 hrs out.

Finally, there is a wide mesoscale effect with respect to dP/dt.
I like to pick two areas to watch not to close or too far from a TC.
One to the NW and one to the NE.
Here I'll pick the BOC buoy and a station in the Bahamas.
The bottom image is the Bahamas; the one above is the BOC Buoy.
Which of those two drops pressure fastest will cause Alex to pull in that direction.

Its an educated judgment call then on how all three effects combine to influence Alex's track.











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Not good at accessing models - jack ruby, 6/26/2010, 9:46 am
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