| NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE HOUSTON/GALVESTON TX 646 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010 .AVIATION... QUITE A BIT OF ACTIVITY AROUND THIS MORNING. WILL EXPECT THIS PCPN TO MIX OUT DURING THE LATE MORNING/EARLY AFTN WITH PERHAPS ANOTHER ROUND WITH THE SEABREEZE LATE THIS AFTN/EARLY EVENING. THEN MOSTLY VFR CONDITIONS OVERNIGHT WITH SOME RE-DEVELOPMENT OF SHRA FROM THE GULF EARLY TUES MORNING. 41 && .PREV DISCUSSION... /ISSUED 445 AM CDT MON JUN 28 2010/ DISCUSSION... TROPICAL AIRMASS BEGINNING TO MOVE BACK INLAND. ANTICIPATE SCT SHRA/TSTMS ACROSS THE AREA TODAY. MAYBE NOT AS MUCH COVERAGE ACROSS THE NRN 1/3 OF THE AREA WHERE MOISTURE LEVELS WILL BE SLIGHTLY LOWER. HOWEVER COULD SEE SOME LATE AFTN/EVNG STORMS THERE TOO SHOULD ANY OUTFLOWS FROM STORMS ALONG A FRONTAL BOUNDARY MOVING INTO N TX PROVIDE A FOCUS. ALEX HAS EMERGED IN THE BAY OF CAMPECHE. MODELS IN FAIRLY CLOSE AGREEMENT AS FAR AS THE EVENTUAL TRACK GOES...RANGING FROM MATAGORDA COUNTY (GFS) TO NRN MEXICO (ECMWF). THE 00Z ECMWF LANDFALL POSITION IS ABOUT 60 MILES NORTH OF THE 12Z RUN. CONDITIONS OVER THE GULF WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRONG INTENSIFICATION. UNFORTUNATELY TROF FCST TO DIP DOWN ACROSS EAST COAST NOW APPEARS TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN GULF ENOUGH FOR A MORE NWWD TRACK. WHAT IS TROUBLESOME ARE THE OVERALL NWD FCST TRENDS. RIDGE FILLING IN BEHIND THE TROF IN THE PLAINS COULD VERY WELL BE THE KEY PLAYER AS TO KEEPING THE NASTIEST PART OF THIS SYSTEM TO OUR SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AS FAR AS SYNOPTIC FLOW/POSITIONING INTO MID WEEK. VERY VERY VERY MINUTE DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE COULD END UP IN THE DIFFERENCE AS TO WHERE ALEX GOES INLAND. ECMWF/UKMET EXTEND A LITTLE (AND I MEAN LITTLE) HIGHER HEIGHTS DOWN INTO CNTL TX THAN GFS AND CANADIAN... HENCE A MORE SWD LANDFALL. (ANY OTHER DAY OF THE WEEK I`D WRITE THE HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OFF AS NEGLIGIBLE). WILL CONTINUE GEARING FCST TOWARD OFFICIAL TRACK BUT AM GETTING A BIT MORE CONCERNED... OVERALL CIRCULATION WILL BE LARGE AND TS FORCE WINDS FCST TO EVENTUALLY EXTEND UPWARDS OF 200 MILES FROM THE CENTER. A CONTINUED JOG TO THE NORTH WOULD BRING THESE WINDS INTO PORTIONS OF THE MARINE WATERS AND CWA. TIDES ARE CURRENTLY RUNNING ABOUT 1 FOOT ABOVE NORMAL. EXPECT THESE TO INCREASE TO AROUND 2 FEET ABOVE NORMAL ON WED WITH ERLY FETCH AND INCREASING SEAS IN PLACE. THIS COULD PUT BEACHFRONT LOCATIONS AT RISK FOR SOME COASTAL FLOODING AT THAT TIME. WAVE RUN-UP WILL ALSO BE AN ISSUE. WILL LET DAY SHIFT EVALUATE THE SITUATION BUT WOULDN`T BE SURPRISED TO SEE A COASTAL FLOOD WATCH ISSUED IN THE FUTURE. SO THRU AT LEAST THURS...EXPECT BANDS OF SHRA/TSTMS TO MOVE ACROSS THE AREA. AREAS CLOSER TO THE COAST WILL SEE BETTER CHANCES. TEMPS ARE UP FOR GRABS AND HIGHLY DEPENDENT ON THE RAINFALL/CLOUD SITUATION. DIDN`T GO AS LOW AS GFS GUIDANCE TEMPS OR AS HIGH OF POPS YET. DID EXTENDED HIGHER POPS INTO THE WEEKEND. ASSUMING A FCST SOMEWHAT LIKE ECMWF PANS OUT...A DEEP SERLY FETCH WILL REMAIN IN PLACE THRU THEN. MARINE... A LOT TO CONSIDER FOR THE UPCOMING FCST AS TROPICAL STORM ALEX MAKES ITSELF A LOT MORE RELEVANT TO THE TX COAST. HAVE MADE ADJUSTMENTS TO WIND SPEEDS/WAVE HEIGHTS (UPWARD) STARTING AS EARLY AS TONIGHT ALONG WITH ADDING AN SCEC. ONCE AGAIN A LOT OF THE MIDDLE/EXTENDED PART OF THE FCST WILL DEPEND UPON THE ACTUAL TRACK OF ALEX AND ITS INTENSITY AS IT MOVES THROUGH THE S/SWRN GULF. MARINE INTERESTS SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE LATEST INFORMATION ON THIS STORM. 41 && .PRELIMINARY POINT TEMPS/POPS... COLLEGE STATION (CLL) 96 77 95 76 91 / 20 30 30 20 40 HOUSTON (IAH) 95 78 94 77 90 / 40 20 30 30 40 GALVESTON (GLS) 91 82 90 82 88 / 40 20 30 40 40 && .HGX WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... TX...NONE. GM...SMALL CRAFT SHOULD EXERCISE CAUTION FROM 1 PM CDT THIS AFTERNOON THROUGH LATE TONIGHT FOR THE FOLLOWING ZONES: GALVESTON BAY...MATAGORDA BAY...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL 20 NM TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM FREEPORT TO THE MATAGORDA SHIP CHANNEL OUT 20 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT 20 TO 60 NM...WATERS FROM HIGH ISLAND TO FREEPORT OUT 20 NM. && |