Re: Interesting Jac
Posted by
jack ruby on 6/28/2010, 12:38 pm
As the NWS forecaster says, just minute differences in the weakness of the trough to his north can cause a difference in actual landfall, and just how close Alex gets to the Houston metro.
UNFORTUNATELY TROF FCST TO DIP DOWN ACROSS EAST COAST NOW APPEARS
TO WEAKEN THE RIDGE SITUATED ACROSS THE NRN GULF ENOUGH FOR A MORE
NWWD TRACK. WHAT IS TROUBLESOME ARE THE OVERALL NWD FCST TRENDS.
RIDGE FILLING IN BEHIND THE TROF IN THE PLAINS COULD VERY WELL BE
THE KEY PLAYER AS TO KEEPING THE NASTIEST PART OF THIS SYSTEM TO
OUR SOUTH. GLOBAL MODELS ARE ALL IN EXCELLENT AGREEMENT AS FAR AS
SYNOPTIC FLOW/POSITIONING INTO MID WEEK. VERY VERY VERY MINUTE
DIFFERENCES IN STRENGTH OF THE RIDGE COULD END UP IN THE DIFFERENCE
AS TO WHERE ALEX GOES INLAND. ECMWF/UKMET EXTEND A LITTLE (AND I
MEAN LITTLE) HIGHER HEIGHTS DOWN INTO CNTL TX THAN GFS AND CANADIAN...
HENCE A MORE SWD LANDFALL. (ANY OTHER DAY OF THE WEEK I`D WRITE
THE HEIGHT DIFFERENCES OFF AS NEGLIGIBLE). WILL CONTINUE GEARING
FCST TOWARD OFFICIAL TRACK BUT AM GETTING A BIT MORE CONCERNED...
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