Re: And really when you think about it---I don't think the NHC percentage is scientifically valid
Posted by
jack ruby on 7/7/2010, 9:48 pm
| I mean its not the same as giving a percentage on receiving a particular card out of deck--or a number on a roulette wheel. Those are real percentages that are mathematically certain--given the number of cards in a deck or numbers on a roulette wheel. But are the percentages posted by the NHC in that category?---No they are not! A given system is more or less developed depending on numerous factors--such as consolidation of low-level circulation---lack of shear---sst's---etc... But although those conditions may somewhat establish a general probability of development---our understanding of them is not sufficient to allow us to quantify the probability into a percentage. The percentages posted by the NHC, in my opinion are inadequate and not scientifically valid. I don't think we are anywhere near being able to test independently test them. That being the case I find it disappointing that an organization of meteorologists would post them. |
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