Re: Water Temps..A bit concerned
Posted by
Conclue on 7/14/2010, 12:17 am
| yeah, you really need a favorable synopitc set up to create steering that would favor an eastern US track landfall. Right now I would say it hasn't been favorable for that; but honestly, were' so early into the season. We still have about another month before we reach the most active time for storms heading into fall. That's when, IMO we have to worry about this being a reality and if temperatures are even higher than they are now, it could be a plausible threat this year compared to others, but with a La Nina being favored in the coming months, we should be expecting an anomalous high pressure ridge over the south eastern US (which we've had) which may allow for an exposed east coast. But then again, a persitent ridge of high pressure is just a piece of a much larger puzzle, so it's really not enough of an indication of anything, IMHO. But that may just be me. You never know how the atmosphere will be or react to different forcings. For instance, we all have seen/heard the signs of an active upcoming season, and conditions are favorable, but how many could foresee king tutt parking his behind for an extended period of time? It's just so complex; but the internesting thing to note is that the sea surface temperatures are what are the most interesting. It definitly makes chances for a stronger cane in these areas as it would be able to sustain its self longer than it would have been able to say another year with anomalously colder temps or even decades ago. |
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