Re: Weather Underground - Jeff Masters
Posted by
jack ruby on 7/20/2010, 12:45 pm
| She was kind of sharp with you, wasn't she??? For what its worth, there's a history of revamping the predictions as the season goes on. For years Dr. Gray would publish three separate predictions for a given hurricane season (don't know if he still does this). First one, several months before the beginning of the season, then one shortly before the June 1 deadline, then another on Aug 7th (thereabouts) just before the heart of the season began. If memory serves me correct an analysis was done to determine just how successful the predictions were. I believe the outcome of that study was that the predictions were not particularly accurate or extraordinary. In otherwords a layman could probably have been near about as good as Dr. Gray on many occasions. From that perspective, your point about the overall validity of predictions is probably well-taken . |
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