Red Circle equals Red Eye
Posted by JAC on 7/21/2010, 7:11 am




Seems like everyone stays up late when a red circle pops.
Personally, I had to watch Captain Phil's Tribute.

Couple things to mention:

1)  97L still has no surface circulation.
As Bobbi pointed out, no juice roll.
Also, the nice warm-core structure it had yesterday afternoon has collapsed.
So far, 97L has been nothing more than a very persistant large MCS / MCV.
That is, convection has been driven by shear.
The best bet for it to transform to a TC is to have a long duration hot-tower, or multiple smaller duration hot-towers fire in order to stoke the core and redirect the TUTT so shear can relax over the LLC.
That hasn't happend yet.
There could be a very real chance it could wash itself out.
I am not saying it will happen, just that there is a chance.

2)  The area on the West Carib is still interesting.
That was my post on 17N 85W.
It is not associated with 97L, but rather a slow moving wave that has been flashing yellow for the last few days.
Vorticity is moving back over water and anti-cyclone is near by.
A hot-tower fired over the vorticity last night which gives it a good chance to see development within 18 hours.
Wait and see on this one.

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Red Circle equals Red Eye - JAC, 7/21/2010, 7:11 am
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