97L Evening Analysis
Posted by
Jake on 7/22/2010, 12:15 am
The disturbance has become more symmetrical this evening with deep convection firing near the LLC. In addition, surface pressures have been slowly falling in the SE Bahamas this evening and spiral bands are forming near the eastern edge of the center. Around the outer edge another more pronounced convective band is helping to bring deep layer moisture/latent heat from the south, as the overall structure has improved around a more vertical system.
The proximity to Hispaniola and extremely high terrain have been choking southerly surface inflow, this and the a strong TUTT low have been restricting organization today. But, lastest shear data indicate that SW has been decreasing from south to north as the TUTT has begun to move WNW at a quicker pace 97L, thus my aforementioned evolving upper air pattern is taking shape as we speak. Southwest shear across 75w has become more southerly as an upper level high builds north across Hispaniola in the wake of the TUTT low. The upper high is forecast to continue build and form a new high across the southern / central during the night through tomorrw. This should allow the disturbance to reach TD status and become Bonnie during the day or early evening.
The OHC across the Bahamas is high and surface inflow should greatly increase from the south where deep layer moisture across the carib should intensify the TC as the core warms and upper air winds become more anticyclonic with possible enhanced outflow channels.
This forecast is bold and many may not agree, but my analysis favors this scenario. Southeast Florida should closely monitor this system. Although 98L is in the SW gulf, 97L is the one that will have the most impact on the US. |
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97L Evening Analysis - Jake, 7/22/2010, 12:15 am Post A Reply
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