Next question is where he'll go
Posted by JAC on 8/2/2010, 9:50 am
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION
NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD
855 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010

VALID 12Z FRI AUG 06 2010 - 12Z MON AUG 09 2010

ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR
12N 41W THIS MORNING...WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FLING NEAR
OR OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. NONE OF THE
DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN MUCH CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM
FROM DAY TO DAY. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO
BEEN QUESTIONABLE WITHIN ANY OF ITS 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OVER THE PAST
SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH THE MULTI-DAY WAVERING IS AROUND A TRACK
WHICH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES UP THE BAHAMAS AND
OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA COAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE
MEMBERS WHICH SUPPORT THE ECMWFS ATTEMPT TO RECURVE THIS SYSTEM
OFFSHORE ATLANTIC CANADA IN A WEEK...BUT JUST AS MANY WHICH MOVE
THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS. THE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS
NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FULL RECURVATURE...AND
THE COL IN THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN TO ITS NORTH...SO
FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR. THE WEAKNESS
ALOFT TO ITS NORTH SHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT NEARS
FLORIDA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THIS TRACK EXPECTATION
AND CONTINUITY FROM THE 16Z CALL ON SUNDAY...THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS
USED AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD TO BE DITCHED
FOR THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE LATE IN
THE PERIOD DUE TO ITS QUESTIONABLE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL
DISTURBANCE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE
IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...AND CHANGES MAY OCCUR DURING THE
16Z COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC TODAY
99
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12.7N 40.5W - JAC, 8/2/2010, 9:44 am
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