Next question is where he'll go
Posted by
JAC on 8/2/2010, 9:50 am
PRELIMINARY EXTENDED FORECAST DISCUSSION NWS HYDROMETEOROLOGICAL PREDICTION CENTER CAMP SPRINGS MD 855 AM EDT MON AUG 02 2010
VALID 12Z FRI AUG 06 2010 - 12Z MON AUG 09 2010
ANOTHER WRINKLE IN THE FORECAST IS THE TROPICAL DISTURBANCE NEAR 12N 41W THIS MORNING...WHICH THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE FLING NEAR OR OFFSHORE THE EAST COAST OF NORTH AMERICA. NONE OF THE DETERMINISTIC GUIDANCE HAS SHOWN MUCH CONTINUITY WITH THIS SYSTEM FROM DAY TO DAY. THE ENSEMBLE GUIDANCE WITH THIS FEATURE HAS ALSO BEEN QUESTIONABLE WITHIN ANY OF ITS 00Z AND 12Z RUNS OVER THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS...THOUGH THE MULTI-DAY WAVERING IS AROUND A TRACK WHICH MOVES JUST NORTH OF THE GREATER ANTILLES UP THE BAHAMAS AND OFFSHORE THE FLORIDA COAST. HOWEVER...THERE ARE A FEW ENSEMBLE MEMBERS WHICH SUPPORT THE ECMWFS ATTEMPT TO RECURVE THIS SYSTEM OFFSHORE ATLANTIC CANADA IN A WEEK...BUT JUST AS MANY WHICH MOVE THROUGH THE FLORIDA STRAITS AND KEYS. THE TROUGH IN THE EAST IS NOT EXPECTED TO BE STRONG ENOUGH TO CAUSE FULL RECURVATURE...AND THE COL IN THE FLOW PATTERN SHOULD REMAIN TO ITS NORTH...SO FLORIDA AND THE GULF COAST ARE NOT IN THE CLEAR. THE WEAKNESS ALOFT TO ITS NORTH SHOULD SLOW ITS FORWARD MOTION AS IT NEARS FLORIDA AT THE END OF THE PERIOD. DUE TO THIS TRACK EXPECTATION AND CONTINUITY FROM THE 16Z CALL ON SUNDAY...THE 00Z CANADIAN WAS USED AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE. THE 00Z ECMWF HAD TO BE DITCHED FOR THE 00Z ECMWF ENSEMBLE MEAN AS PART OF THE PREFERENCE LATE IN THE PERIOD DUE TO ITS QUESTIONABLE HANDLING OF THIS TROPICAL DISTURBANCE. NEEDLESS TO SAY...CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN AVERAGE IN THIS ASPECT OF THE FORECAST...AND CHANGES MAY OCCUR DURING THE 16Z COORDINATION CALL WITH NHC TODAY
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In this thread:
12.7N 40.5W -
JAC,
8/2/2010, 9:44 am- Re: 12.7N is UP.... high north - BobbiStorm, 8/2/2010, 10:31 am
- Re: 12.7N 40.5W - ArgosyTn, 8/2/2010, 9:58 am
- Re: 12.7N 40.5W - BobbiStorm, 8/2/2010, 9:45 am
- PREDICT Synopsis - JAC, 8/2/2010, 10:16 am
- Next question is where he'll go - JAC, 8/2/2010, 9:50 am
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