PREDICT Synopsis
Posted by
JAC on 8/2/2010, 10:16 am
PREDICT pouch synopsis
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Date (UTC): 2010/08/02 11:29
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/08/02 11:32
Revised at(UTC): 2010/08/02 13:50
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Pouch Name: PGI22L Official Name: 91L Initial Center Point: 12N 36W
Notes:
Invest 90L, in the same region, was discontinued over the
weekend, but then 91L was subsequently initiated.
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ECMWF: Phase Speed: -8.8 Determination: average Level tracked: 700 hPa
Recurves, so track moves far to the north. (Also, there is a
pouch for PGI21L just to the north of 91L at analysis time at
700hPa, but then it dissipates.)
GFS: Phase Speed: -8.6 Determination: average Level tracked: 700 hPa
Distinct track to 120 h.
UKMET: Phase Speed: Determination: Level tracked:
NOGAPS: Phase Speed: -8.1 Determination: average Level tracked: 700 hPa
Track only to 24 h. (850 hPa track was not better.)
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Other potential systems:
PGI20L near 14N, 81W is about to make landfall on Nicaragua.
A weak wave near 67W is denoted by the models, but with no
convection, its chances are slim.
The PGI21L wave has moved north and passed to the west of
PGI22L/91L. It has a high-amplitude (meridionally) TPW max, but
TPW is confined to the low-level. The wave has little to no
convection. In analyses, the models indicate only a trof at
700hPa, which then dissipates, leaving only 91L.
A large convective system ~26W is present between 91L and PGI24L
for the second consecutive day. Analyses and models don't
indicate anything there, at least in terms of a wave at 700hPa.
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12.7N 40.5W -
JAC,
8/2/2010, 9:44 am Post A Reply
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