TD - 4 / Eastern Carib Disturbance
Posted by
Jake on 8/2/2010, 11:59 pm
The depression remains well organized this evening, but overall see little change in cloud structure. The system is moving WNW at 20-25mph under a strong sub-tropical ridge center north of the depression. Although the upper environment is somewhat favorable the rapid movement will hinder strengthening as upward motion will lag behind the LLC. The environment will gradually become less favorable as the depression moves closer to 60W, where a large shear gear has been located north of the greater antilles.
Conclusion: TD-4 will have a small window to strengthen before west to NW shear increases, even if a possible southern route is taken the greater antilles will take care of ripping the system apart, either way I see this doomed in the coming days. But, should briefly become our next TS.
Eastern carib has a disturbance with a rather favorable environment, but the 850-700mb vortex is too close to the S.American coast this evening. However, as the break in the ridge increases the vortex and associated convection/deep layer moisture will lift more poleward into the central carib where an upper level high will allow this to gather under 10kts or less of shear. Although, early the large deep layer trough diving down the eastern seaboard appears to open a track towards the general direction of Cuba. Think this system has the greatest potential to be the strongest of the two.. |
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TD - 4 / Eastern Carib Disturbance - Jake, 8/2/2010, 11:59 pm Post A Reply
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