| NWS Tallahassee, Fla...SHORT TERM...TONIGHT THROUGH TUE NIGHT. THE MAIN FORECAST CONCERN OVER THE SHORT TERM WILL BE THE EVOLUTION OF THE SURFACE LOW OFF THE NE FL COAST. FOR TONIGHT AND MON...THIS FEATURE WILL STILL BE E OF THE PENINSULA HELPING TO PULL SOME LOWER LEVEL DRY AIR INTO THE REGION. SUBSIDENCE ON THE W SIDE OF THE TUTT FEATURE WILL ALSO AID IN SUPPRESSING CONVECTION . FOR THE MON NIGHT TUE NIGHT PERIOD...MUCH OF THE FORECAST DEPENDS ON THE SURFACE REFLECTION OF THE TUTT FEATURE THAT WILL BE CROSSING S FL. THE GFS DOESN`T QUITE SEEM TO KNOW HOW TO HANDLE THE SYSTEM JUST YET. THE EURO IS TOO QUICK TO BRING THE SURFACE LOW INTO THE GULF (TONIGHT). WE PREFERRED TO USE THE NAM SOLUTION AT THIS POINT. FOR REFERENCE...THE TPC/HPC COORDINATED POSITION FOR THE LOW IS 28N AND 86W AT F72 OR 12Z WED. THIS IS AT THE SAME LATITUDE AS THE NAM SOLUTION AND JUST ABOUT 90 MI TO THE E. CONCERNING THE CHARACTER OF THE SYSTEM...IT APPEARS UNLIKELY THAT IT WILL DEVELOP TRUE TROPICAL CHARACTERISTICS CONSIDERING THE ATTENDANT TUTT. HOWEVER...THIS CANNOT BE RULED OUT AND THE SYSTEM WILL BE WATCHED VERY CLOSELY OVER THE NEXT 48-72 HOURS BY THE TPC AND GULF COAST WFOS. LONG TERM...WED THROUGH NEXT SUN.THIS DISCUSSION IS BASED ON THE 00Z SUITE OF MODELS. THE UPPER AIR PATTERN AT THE START OF THE EXTENDED SHOWS A DEEP TROUGH ALONG THE WEST COAST OF THE U.S. ANOTHER TROUGH WILL BE LOCATED ALONG THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD...WHICH EXTENDS SOUTHWARD INTO A TUTT CELL. BOOKENDED IN THE MIDDLE IS A DEEP LAYER HIGH CENTERED IN THE MIDDLE MISSISSIPPI VALLEY. MODELS ARE IN GENERAL AGREEMENT AT THIS TIME INDICATING A SURFACE LOW WILL BE SITUATED OFF THE WEST COAST OF THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. BY THURSDAY...THE SURFACE LOW HAS MOVED NORTHWEST AND HAS GONE ASHORE ALONG THE NORTH CENTRAL GULF COAST. THE UPPER ANTICYCLONE ROTATES AROUND THE TUTT CELL AND ENDS UP OVER THE FLORIDA PENINSULA. AFTER THURSDAY...THE MODELS DIVERGE WILDLY. THE GFS CONTINUES THE WESTWARD DRIFT OF THE UPPER LOW WHILE THE THE EURO HAS THE UPPER LOW TURN NORTH AND IS CAUGHT IN THE WESTERLIES. THE GFS ALSO DEEPENS THE ATLANTIC SEABOARD TROUGH CONSIDERABLY BY THE END OF THE PERIOD. THE EURO HAS A DEEP LAYER HIGH SITUATED IN THE SOUTHEAST. ALL IN ALL...AS YOU CAN SEE...THERE WILL BE A LOT OF UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED. THEREFORE...AT THIS TIME...WILL NOT VENTURE FAR FROM GFS GUIDANCE...WHICH CONTINUES THE ABOVE NORMAL TEMPS. POPS WILL BE BELOW NORMAL INITIALLY...BUT WILL BECOME NEAR NORMAL THROUGH THE REMAINDER OF THE PERIOD. |