Maybe a little clarification is needed
Posted by JAC on 8/8/2010, 10:58 pm
94L will not develop in the Atlantic.

What looks good is not the current conditions or convection; but what may happen around Tuesday.

Currently there is a surface low off the east coast of Florida that extends up to 200mb.

With the UL Low over this, it can not develop.

The scenario is for the lower level circulation, around 700mb, to move west across Florida into the GOM while the UL Low will remain stationary and weaken.

A TUTT will be anchored in the west GOM.

So, caught between two TUTTs on the west and east induces a UL High between them.

A great way to ventilate a TC.

Given the heavy convection firing in the east GOM, there is a good chance for the 700mb vorticity to work its way to the surface.









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94L Looking Good - JAC, 8/8/2010, 8:26 pm
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