50 - 50 may be resonable
Posted by JAC on 8/10/2010, 7:00 am
| Looking at tropopause height, the TUTT over Florida is not all that strong. A deep TUTT would have a much lower tropopause height. Convection along and west of the Keys has a cloud-top pressure of 200mb. Given the large surface convergence, there is a good chance that the convection could increase. Rolling nicely on MIMIC-TPW. If so, the TUTT could be blown away. Saw this scenario with Alex when there was a weak TUTT close to Alex in the GOM. Once convection flared, the TUTT was blown out of the water.     |
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In this thread:
94L at 50% - Beaumont, 8/10/2010, 5:43 am
- A good 48 to 60 hours over 30 to 31C Water - JAC, 8/10/2010, 7:32 am
- RUC dissipates the TUTT later today - JAC, 8/10/2010, 7:24 am
- The Dry Slot - JAC, 8/10/2010, 7:11 am
- Re: 94L at 50% - DESteve, 8/10/2010, 6:20 am
- Convection may look like crap, but wind fields look pretty good. - JAC, 8/10/2010, 6:43 am
- it's enuf of a threat to shut down relief well drilling :( - CypressTX, 8/10/2010, 11:59 am
- Convection may look like crap, but wind fields look pretty good. - JAC, 8/10/2010, 6:43 am
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