31L is what GFS is developing as a cane
Posted by JAC on 8/17/2010, 12:18 pm
PREDICT pouch synopsis

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Date (UTC): 2010/08/17 15:01
Author: Boothe
Submitted at (UTC): 2010/08/17 15:12
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Pouch Name: PGI30L        Official Name:        Initial Center Point: 16N   18W
Notes:

PGI30L is the 700-hPa pouch that has come off of Africa.


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ECMWF:  Phase Speed: -5.8        Determination: v700 only        Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 120h
Moves north of PGI31L, with some Fujiwhara effect, but then
continues westward.  Both PGI30L & PGI31L are moving westward in
5 days, with PGI30L west of/ahead of PGI31L.
CROSSES 40W:  ~Aug 20/18Z


GFS:      Phase Speed: -6.3        Determination: Moisture & v average        Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 48h
PGI30L dissipates as it move north of PGI31L.  PGI31L is the
intense system at the end of the 5-day forecast.


UKMET:  Phase Speed: -5.2        Determination: Moisture & v average        Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 120h
Similar to ECMWF.
CROSSES 40W: ~Aug 20/06Z


NOGAPS:  Phase Speed: -6.0        Determination: v700 only        Level tracked: 700 hPa

Track: 48h
Dissipates PGI30L.  NOGAPS has the initial large circulation to
the west at the analysis (like the other models), but the
intense pouch at the end originates closer to Africa than the
other models.
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In this thread:
30L Hits the Water with a very-strong Moisture Column - JAC, 8/16/2010, 4:06 pm
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