5PM Discussion
Posted by
Chris in Tampa on 8/23/2010, 4:36 pm
Track:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at1+shtml/203312.shtml?5day?large#contents
Bermuda still an uncertainty.
---------------------------------
HURRICANE DANIELLE DISCUSSION NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010
THE CONVECTIVE CANOPY OF DANIELLE HAS BECOME MORE AXISYMMETRIC OVER
THE PAST FEW HOURS...INDICATING THAT VERTICAL SHEAR OVER THE SYSTEM
IS NOW RELAXING. A 1620 UTC AMSR-E MICROWAVE PASS SHOWED A DISTINCT
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF CIRCULATION THAT IS DISPLACED A LITTLE TO THE
SOUTHEAST OF THE MID-LEVEL CENTER OF ROTATION. DESPITE THAT
STRUCTURE...DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE RISEN TO T4.0 FROM TAFB AND
SAB...AND DANIELLE IS UPGRADED TO A HURRICANE ON THAT BASIS. THE
CYCLONE APPEARS TO BE GOING THROUGH A PERIOD OF RAPID
INTENSIFICATION...AND THE SHIPS RI GUIDANCE SUGGESTS THAT IT COULD
CONTINUE FOR ANOTHER 12 TO 24 HOURS. THEREFORE...THE OFFICIAL
FORECAST INDICATES A 25-KT INCREASE OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS BUT THEN
LEVELS OFF THE INTENSITY TO THE THRESHOLD OF MAJOR HURRICANE BY 48
HOURS. THIS FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE SHIPS...LGEM...AND FSU
SUPERENSEMBLE AND SHOWS FASTER STRENGTHENING THAN THE GFDL AND
HWRF.
DANIELLE CONTINUES TO ACCELERATE AND NOW HAS AN INITIAL MOTION OF
290/15. A BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE IS LOCATED NORTH OF THE
HURRICANE...AND THIS FEATURE WILL ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO TURN TOWARD
THE NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT 36 HOURS. MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
TIGHTLY-CLUSTERED...AND AGAIN...LITTLE CHANGE WAS REQUIRED FROM THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS VERY CLOSE TO THE MODEL
CONSENSUS TVCN AND CURRENTLY LIES A LITTLE TO THE WEST OF THE
GFDL...HWRF...AND ECMWF AT THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 23/2100Z 15.4N 41.5W 65 KT
12HR VT 24/0600Z 16.3N 43.6W 80 KT
24HR VT 24/1800Z 17.8N 46.2W 90 KT
36HR VT 25/0600Z 19.6N 48.8W 95 KT
48HR VT 25/1800Z 21.6N 51.3W 100 KT
72HR VT 26/1800Z 25.0N 55.0W 100 KT
96HR VT 27/1800Z 27.5N 57.0W 95 KT
120HR VT 28/1800Z 30.5N 58.5W 95 KT
$$
FORECASTER BERG
---------------------------------
HURRICANE DANIELLE ADVISORY NUMBER 9
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL AL062010
500 PM AST MON AUG 23 2010
...DANIELLE BECOMES A HURRICANE...THE SECOND OF THE ATLANTIC
SEASON...
SUMMARY OF 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...15.4N 41.5W
ABOUT 1320 MI...2120 KM E OF THE LESSER ANTILLES
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...75 MPH...120 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...WNW OR 290 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...987 MB...29.15 INCHES
WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
THERE ARE NO COASTAL WATCHES OR WARNINGS IN EFFECT.
DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM AST...2100 UTC...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE DANIELLE WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 15.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 41.5 WEST. DANIELLE IS
MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR...AND IS
EXPECTED TO TURN TOWARD THE NORTHWEST BY TUESDAY NIGHT.
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 75 MPH...120 KM/HR...
WITH HIGHER GUSTS. DANIELLE IS A CATEGORY ONE HURRICANE ON THE
SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. ADDITIONAL STRENGTHENING IS
FORECAST DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS...AND DANIELLE IS FORECAST TO
BECOME A MAJOR HURRICANE BY WEDNESDAY.
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 10 MILES...20 KM...FROM
THE CENTER...AND TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 70
MILES...110 KM.
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE IS 987 MB...29.15 INCHES.
HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
NONE.
NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM AST.
$$
FORECASTER BERG |
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