Danielle's Track ??
Posted by
Jake on 8/24/2010, 12:33 am
Danielle continues to become more symmetrical this evening, as shear has decreased. Her vertical structure is well centered with the vorticity max at all levels. This part is straight forward, shear is low and SST's are warming was she moves towards higher OHC.
However, a thorough review of the steering pattern shows Danielle centered directly south of the central atlantic trough. The trough appears to be working south and has split the Bermuda / Azores high. Deep layer easterly flow remains strong from 20N west to 70W through 300mb level. I just don't see Danielle turning towards the NW per NHC / MODEL guidance moving @ 20 mph and the aforementioned steering pattern. Water vapor images shows mid level strato -cu / cirrus canopy moving in towards 275 - 285 deg and so is her eye.
The Northern Antilles should continue to monitor Danielle. I case the models are over estimating the strength of the trough eroding the Bermuda high to quickly!!! |
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Danielle's Track ?? - Jake, 8/24/2010, 12:33 am Post A Reply
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