Re: Danielle late evening take
Posted by
Jake on 8/25/2010, 12:19 am
The cyclone became sheared this afternoon, this combined with dry air entrainment caused the disruption of the central core, thus weaking occurred. However, during the evening an increase in very intense convection has continued over the center. Once again, the diurnal pulse and decrease vertical westerly shear has allow a very strong vortex to fire.
Danielle has maintained a 280-290 deg heading today, with a slightly more westward motion late this evening. Upper air analysis indicates a continued split in the sub-tropical ridge, as the NHC turn towards the NW didn't occur today. In factor, the overall trend in the models has been a shift towards the west. A deep layer W-WNW flow remains in place, as the central atlantic trough appears to have flattened and a less aggressive southern push is evident. In addtion, a 400-200mb ULL is moving in tandom with system, this feature appears to be holding the trough, as high pressure builds behind the trough in the northern latitudes. Furthermore, this ULL is aiding Danielles northern outflow and expanding the upper high near the cyclone. Lastly, a well anchored western atlantic high is well staked through 200mb. This high is keeping the CONUS trough at bay, which in turn holds the current steering pattern unchanged for a longer period.
Conclusion: Danielle should continue to strengthen during the next few days. Max winds should 105mph, but weaken some north of 30N. Bermuda will likely see hurricane conditions and the NE CONUS should monitor her progress, as a Gloria type steering pattern could evolve in the coming days. |
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Jake,
8/24/2010, 12:33 am Post A Reply
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