Earl back to cat 4 status, 135mph, and more watches and warnings issued, at 5PM AST on 9/1
Posted by Chris in Tampa on 9/1/2010, 5:00 pm
3 Day Track Forecast:
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphics_at2+shtml/152331.shtml?3day?large#contents




----------------------------------------------




HURRICANE EARL ADVISORY NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL     AL072010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

...DANGEROUS AND LARGE HURRICANE EARL POSES A THREAT TO THE
MID-ATLANTIC COAST...WATCHES AND WARNINGS EXTENDED NORTHWARD
THROUGH MASSACHUSETTS...


SUMMARY OF 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...INFORMATION
----------------------------------------------
LOCATION...26.3N 73.3W
ABOUT 235 MI...380 KM E OF GREAT ABACO ISLAND
ABOUT 630 MI...1010 KM SSE OF CAPE HATTERAS NORTH CAROLINA
MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS...135 MPH...215 KM/HR
PRESENT MOVEMENT...NW OR 320 DEGREES AT 17 MPH...28 KM/HR
MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE...941 MB...27.79 INCHES


WATCHES AND WARNINGS
--------------------
CHANGES WITH THIS ADVISORY...

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY...INCLUDING
DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH
OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH
MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO
WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND
SOUND.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FROM NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH
TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER MASSACHUSETTS.

SUMMARY OF WATCHES AND WARNINGS IN EFFECT...

A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA NORTHEASTWARD TO THE NORTH
CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER INCLUDING THE PAMLICO AND ALBEMARLE
SOUNDS.

A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* NORTH OF THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO CAPE HENLOPEN
DELAWARE.
* WOODS HOLE TO SAGAMORE BEACH MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING MARTHAS
VINEYARD AND NANTUCKET.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* FROM CAPE FEAR TO WEST OF BOGUE INLET NORTH CAROLINA.
* FROM THE NORTH CAROLINA/VIRGINIA BORDER TO SANDY HOOK NEW
JERSEY...INCLUDING DELAWARE BAY SOUTH OF SLAUGHTER BEACH AND THE
CHESAPEAKE BAY SOUTH OF NEW POINT COMFORT.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR...
* SANDY HOOK NEW JERSEY TO WOODS HOLE MASSACHUSETTS...INCLUDING
BLOCK ISLAND AND LONG ISLAND SOUND.
* NORTH OF SAGAMORE BEACH TO THE MOUTH OF THE MERRIMACK RIVER
MASSACHUSETTS.

A HURRICANE WARNING MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED
SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA.  A WARNING IS TYPICALLY ISSUED
36 HOURS BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF
TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE
PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR DANGEROUS. PREPARATIONS TO PROTECT LIFE
AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE RUSHED TO COMPLETION.

A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA.  A WATCH IS TYPICALLY ISSUED 48 HOURS
BEFORE THE ANTICIPATED FIRST OCCURRENCE OF TROPICAL-STORM-FORCE
WINDS...CONDITIONS THAT MAKE OUTSIDE PREPARATIONS DIFFICULT OR
DANGEROUS.

A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
EXPECTED SOMEWHERE WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN 36 HOURS.

A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS ARE
POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 48 HOURS.

INTERESTS IN NORTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND SOUTHEASTERN CANADA SHOULD
MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF EARL.

FOR STORM INFORMATION SPECIFIC TO YOUR AREA...INCLUDING POSSIBLE
INLAND WATCHES AND WARNINGS...PLEASE MONITOR PRODUCTS ISSUED BY
YOUR LOCAL NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE FORECAST OFFICE.


DISCUSSION AND 48-HOUR OUTLOOK
------------------------------
AT 500 PM EDT...2100 UTC...THE LARGE EYE OF HURRICANE EARL WAS
LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 26.3 NORTH...LONGITUDE 73.3 WEST. EARL IS
MOVING TOWARD THE NORTHWEST NEAR 17 MPH...28 KM/HR. THIS MOTION IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TONIGHT WITH A GRADUAL TURN TO THE NORTH ON
THURSDAY. ON THE FORECAST TRACK...THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE WILL
APPROACH THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST BY LATE THURSDAY.

MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS HAVE INCREASED TO NEAR 135 MPH...215
KM/HR...WITH HIGHER GUSTS.  EARL IS AGAIN A CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE
ON THE SAFFIR-SIMPSON HURRICANE WIND SCALE. SOME FLUCTUATIONS IN
INTENSITY ARE LIKELY TONIGHT AND THURSDAY...BUT A GRADUAL WEAKENING
TREND IS ANTICIPATED THEREAFTER.

EARL IS STILL A LARGE HURRICANE AND GROWING. HURRICANE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 90 MILES...150 KM...FROM THE CENTER...AND
TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS EXTEND OUTWARD UP TO 200 MILES...325 KM.

LATEST MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE REPORTED BY AN AIR FORCE
RECONNAISSANCE PLANE A FEW HOURS AGO WAS 941 MB...27.79 INCHES.


HAZARDS AFFECTING LAND
----------------------
WINDS...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED TO REACH THE NORTH
CAROLINA COAST WITHIN THE WARNING AREA BY THURSDAY AFTERNOON WITH
HURRICANE FORCE WINDS OCCURRING BY LATE THURSDAY. TROPICAL STORM
FORCE WINDS WILL LIKELY REACH THE COAST FROM VIRGINIA NORTHWARD TO
NEW JERSEY BY EARLY FRIDAY.

STORM SURGE...A DANGEROUS STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS
MUCH AS 3 TO 5 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE HURRICANE WARNING
AREA. ELSEWHERE...STORM SURGE WILL RAISE WATER LEVELS BY AS MUCH AS
1 TO 3 FEET ABOVE GROUND LEVEL WITHIN THE TROPICAL STORM WARNING
AREA. NEAR THE COAST...THE SURGE WILL BE ACCOMPANIED BY LARGE AND
DESTRUCTIVE WAVES.

RAINFALL...ACCUMULATIONS OF 2 TO 4 INCHES...WITH ISOLATED
MAXIMUM AMOUNTS OF 6 INCHES...ARE EXPECTED OVER PORTIONS OF EASTERN
NORTH CAROLINA INCLUDING THE OUTER BANKS.

SURF...LARGE SWELLS FROM EARL WILL CONTINUE TO AFFECT THE BAHAMAS
AND THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES THROUGH FRIDAY.  THESE
SWELLS WILL LIKELY CAUSE DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS AND RIP
CURRENTS.


NEXT ADVISORY
-------------
NEXT INTERMEDIATE ADVISORY...800 PM EDT.
NEXT COMPLETE ADVISORY...1100 PM EDT.

$$
FORECASTER AVILA





----------------------------------------------




HURRICANE EARL DISCUSSION NUMBER  30
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL072010
500 PM EDT WED SEP 01 2010

VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE EYE HAS BECOME VERY
DISTINCT...WITH OJECTIVE T-NUMBERS OSCILLATING AROUND 6.0 FOR THE
PAST FEW HOURS. AN AIR FORCE PLANE MEASURED FLIGHT-LEVEL WINDS OF
138 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 941 MB IN THE LAST FIX.
HOWEVER...SFMR MEASUREMENTS WERE A LITTLE LOWER. A COMPROMISE OF
THESE DATA SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 115 KNOTS.
HOWEVER...EARL COULD FLUCTUATE IN INTENSITY DURING THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS BUT SHOULD BEGIN TO GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS IT REACHES
COOLER WATERS AND MOVES INTO HIGHER SHEAR BEYOND 36 HOURS. BY DAY 5
THE HURRICANE SHOULD HAVE BEEN ABSORBED BY A LARGE EXTRATROPICAL
CYCLONE WELL NORTH OF CANADA.

SATELLITE AND RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT FIXES INDICATE THAT EARL
HAS BEEN MOVING RELENTLESSLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 310 DEGREES
AT 15 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE IS ABOUT TO REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN MORE TO THE
NORTH-NORTHWEST AND NORTH LATER TONIGHT AND THURSDAY. IN ABOUT 36
HOURS OR SO...THE HURRICANE WILL ENCOUNTER THE BASE OF THE
MID-LATITUDE WESTERLIES AND SHOULD BEGIN TO RECURVE OR TURN TO THE
NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASING FORWARD SPEED. THIS IS THE SOLUTION
CONSISTENTLY PROVIDED BY TRACK MODELS...WHICH HAVE EARL PASSING TO
THE EAST BUT NOT FAR FROM THE OUTER BANKS OF NORTH CAROLINA ON
THURSDAY NIGHT. ONLY A SMALL WESTWARD DEVIATION OF THE TRACK TO THE
WEST WOULD BRING THE CORE OF THE HURRICANE TO THE COAST.

GIVEN THE FORECAST TRACK...THE LARGE SIZE OF THE WIND FIELD...AND
THE EXPECTED INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED WATCHES AND WATCHES HAVE
BEEN EXTENDED NORTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST OF THE UNITED STATES.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INITIAL      01/2100Z 26.3N  73.3W   115 KT
12HR VT     02/0600Z 28.4N  74.7W   115 KT
24HR VT     02/1800Z 31.7N  75.4W   110 KT
36HR VT     03/0600Z 35.1N  74.7W   100 KT
48HR VT     03/1800Z 38.5N  72.2W    90 KT
72HR VT     04/1800Z 46.5N  63.5W    60 KT
96HR VT     05/1800Z 58.0N  57.0W    40 KT...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
120HR VT     06/1800Z...DISSIPATED

$$
FORECASTER AVILA
224
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Earl back to cat 4 status, 135mph, and more watches and warnings issued, at 5PM AST on 9/1 - Chris in Tampa, 9/1/2010, 5:00 pm
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