| NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 725 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 .SHORT TERM /6 PM THIS EVENING THROUGH 6 AM FRIDAY/... TONIGHT...AS THE HIGH SHIFTS FURTHER OFFSHORE...EARL WILL START ITS NORTH-NORTHEAST TURN TOWARD THE SE NEW ENGLAND COAST. MID AND HIGH CLOUDS WELL AHEAD OF THE STORM WILL PUSH N. WITH ENOUGH RELATIVELY DRY AIR ACROSS MOST OF THE REGION...IT APPEARS THAT THE LEADING EDGE OF PRECIP ASSOCIATED WITH EARL WILL REMAIN S OF THE REGION UNTIL FRIDAY. HAVE KEPT SLIGHT CHANCE POPS INTO THE S COAST AFTER 06Z. WARM AND HUMID CONDITIONS WILL REMAIN IN PLACE AS WINDS START TO BACK TO S-SE OVERNIGHT. EXPECT LOWS IN THE 60S TO AROUND 70. && .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... UPDATE...A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH HAS BEEN ISSUED FOR BRISTOL AND PLYMOUTH COUNTIES AWAY FROM THE COAST TO BETTER MATCH UP WITH THE HURRICANE WATCH ISSUED EARLIER ALONG THE COAST OF THESE COUNTIES. DETAILS ABOUT THIS NEW WATCH WILL BE INCORPORATED IN THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT. THIS WATCH AWAY FROM THE COAST MAY NEED TO BE EXTENDED FURTHER INLAND LATER TODAY. PREVIOUS DISCUSSION... DETAILS ON TROPICAL STORM AND HURRICANE WATCHES ALONG THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND COAST CAN BE FOUND IN THE HURRICANE LOCAL STATEMENT. THE BIG CHANGE THIS MORNING IS THAT THE HURRICANE WATCH HAS BEEN EXPANDED A BIT FURTHER N AND W ALONG THE SE MA COAST...FROM WESTPORT AROUND CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS UP TO PLYMOUTH. THIS COULD STILL BE EXTENDED FURTHER IF THE HURRICANE TRACKS EVEN CLOSER. WEATHER CONDITIONS WILL DETERIORATE DURING THE DAY FRIDAY AS RAINFALL MOVES N WITH THE HURRICANE. THE 09Z FORECAST FROM THE NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER CONTINUES TO BRING EARL TOWARD NANTUCKET AND THE OUTER CAPE...NOT MUCH CHANGE FROM PREVIOUS FORECASTS. THE HURRICANE IS STILL EXPECTED TO PASS 20 TO 30 MILES SOUTHEAST OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT. HOWEVER...WITH THE HURRICANE SO STRONG THIS MORNING SE OF THE OUTER BANKS...IT WILL NOT WEAKEN QUITE AS MUCH AS PREVIOUSLY THOUGHT AS EARL MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO THE REGION. THIS MEANS THAT THERE IS A BETTER CHANCE OF HURRICANE CONDITIONS FOR PORTIONS OF S COASTAL MA...CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS...WITH TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS A BIT FURTHER INLAND. THERE IS STILL THE CHANCE THAT EARL COULD MAKE AN EVEN MORE DIRECT HIT ON THE OUTER CAPE OR NANTUCKET. THERE COULD ALSO BE HIGHER WINDS FURTHER INTO EASTERN MA/RI AND POSSIBLY NE CT. HOWEVER...A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH FOR THESE AREAS HAS NOT BEEN ISSUED YET...BUT THIS IS BEING CONSIDERED LATER TODAY DEPENDING UPON HOW QUICKLY THE HURRICANE MAKES ITS TURN TOWARD THE REGION. THERE COULD ALSO BE A LOW LEVEL JET THAT DEVELOPS NW OF THE STORM AS IT PASSES BY NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT...WHICH MIGHT MIX DOWN AND CAUSE SOME DAMAGE INLAND. ANOTHER CONCERN IS THE RAINFALL FROM EARL. TYPICALLY...THE HEAVIEST RAINFALL OCCURS TO THE LEFT OF THE CENTER OF TROPICAL SYSTEMS AS THEY PASS ACROSS THE REGION. THIS WILL BE THE CASE WITH EARL AS WELL. CURRENT FORECAST SUGGESTS BETWEEN 2 AND 3 INCHES ACROSS RI/E MA WITH LOCALLY HIGHER AMOUNTS IN ANY BANDS THAT MOVE THROUGH. THERE IS A BIT HIGHER CONFIDENCE OF HEAVY RAINFALL AMOUNTS ACROSS THE AFOREMENTIONED AREAS LATER FRIDAY AFTERNOON AND FRIDAY NIGHT. THE FORWARD SPEED OF EARL WILL CONTINUE TO INCREASE AS IT HEADS NE SATURDAY MORNING...SO EXPECT CONDITIONS TO QUICKLY IMPROVE BY LATE MORNING. THERE IS ALSO A COLD FRONT THAT WILL PUSH E WITH THE STORM. SHOULD BE A BEAUTIFUL SATURDAY AFTERNOON...AND COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE 70S. Tropical Storm Watch HURRICANE EARL LOCAL STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE TAUNTON MA 701 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 ...HURRICANE EARL APPROACHING SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND... .AREAS AFFECTED... THIS LOCAL STATEMENT PROVIDES IMPORTANT INFORMATION AND RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR PEOPLE AND MARINE INTERESTS IN SELECT LOCATIONS AND COASTAL WATER LEGS OF SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND AND MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND COASTAL WATERS. .WATCHES/WARNINGS... A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... EASTERN PLYMOUTH MA...SOUTHERN BRISTOL MA AND SOUTHERN PLYMOUTH MA. A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... BARNSTABLE MA...DUKES MA AND NANTUCKET MA. FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A HURRICANE WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS... EASTERN ESSEX MA...SUFFOLK MA...EASTERN NORFOLK MA...SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI...EASTERN KENT RI...BRISTOL RI...WASHINGTON RI... NEWPORT RI AND BLOCK ISLAND RI. A TROPICAL STORM WIND WATCH IS IN EFFECT FOR THE FOLLOWING LOCATIONS...NORTHERN BRISTOL MA...WESTERN PLYMOUTH MA. FOR MARINE INTERESTS...A TROPICAL STORM WATCH CONTINUES FOR PORTIONS OF MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND. PLEASE CHECK THE LATEST PUBLIC AND MARINE FORECASTS FOR DETAILED INFORMATION ABOUT ADDITIONAL HAZARDS. .STORM INFORMATION... AT 6 AM EDT...THE CENTER OF HURRICANE EARL WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 29.3N...LONGITUDE 74.7W. THIS WAS ABOUT 860 MILES SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF NANTUCKET MA. STORM MOTION WAS NNW OR 330 DEGREES AT 18 MPH. STORM INTENSITY WAS 145 MPH. .SITUATION OVERVIEW... HURRICANE EARL IS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY 4 HURRICANE AND IS MOVING TOWARD THE NORTH CAROLINA COAST. EARL IS EXPECTED TO TURN NORTH LATE TODAY THEN NORTHEAST FRIDAY TOWARD SOUTHEAST NEW ENGLAND. THE LATEST TRACK PROJECTION HAS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY TO THE WEST AND EARL IS NOW EXPECTED TO TRACK WITHIN 30 MILES SOUTH OF NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT. EARL WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THURSDAY NIGHT AND FRIDAY AS IT MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS BUT MAY STILL BE A CATEGORY 2 HURRICANE AS IT MAKES ITS CLOSEST APPROACH TO NANTUCKET FRIDAY NIGHT. IT IS TOO EARLY TO PROVIDE EXACT WIND AND SURGE FORECAST VALUES FOR SPECIFIC LOCATIONS. A GENERAL CONCERN SHOULD BE FOR THE POSSIBILITY OF AT LEAST EXTENSIVE DAMAGE SOMEWHERE WITHIN SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. .NEXT UPDATE... THE NEXT LOCAL STATEMENT WILL BE ISSUED BY THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN TAUNTON AROUND 1 PM EDT...OR SOONER IF CONDITIONS WARRANT. MAZ007-015-016-RIZ002-004>008-031115- /O.CON.KBOX.TR.A.1007.000000T0000Z-000000T0000Z/ EASTERN ESSEX MA-SUFFOLK MA-EASTERN NORFOLK MA- SOUTHEAST PROVIDENCE RI-EASTERN KENT RI-BRISTOL RI-WASHINGTON RI- NEWPORT RI-BLOCK ISLAND RI- 701 AM EDT THU SEP 2 2010 ...TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT... ...NEW INFORMATION... THE WINDS SECTION...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS SECTION AND INLAND FLOODING SECTION HAS BEEN UPDATED. ...PROBABILITY OF TROPICAL STORM/HURRICANE CONDITIONS... THE CHANCE FOR HURRICANE CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS 5 TO 14 PERCENT. ALSO...THE CHANCE FOR TROPICAL STORM CONDITIONS AT THIS TIME IS UP TO 66 PERCENT. ...WINDS... HURRICANE FORCE WINDS TO 75 MPH ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE CAPE AND ISLANDS EXTENDING NORTHWARD TO PLYMOUTH. HOWEVER...THE HIGHEST PROBABILITY OF HURRICANE FORCE WINDS ARE EXPECTED AT NANTUCKET WHERE GUSTS TO 90 MPH ARE POSSIBLE. FOR THE REST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND COASTLINE...TROPICAL STORM FORCE WINDS OF 40 TO 60 MPH ARE POSSIBLE WITH THE STRONGEST WINDS CLOSEST TO THE CAPE COD CANAL. THE PERIOD OF STRONGEST WINDS SHOULD OCCUR LATE FRIDAY AND FRIDAY EVENING...THEN DIMINISH LATE FRIDAY NIGHT AND ESPECIALLY SATURDAY MORNING. GIVEN TREES REMAIN FULLY LEAVED COMBINED WITH HEAVY RAINFALL...WINDS OF THIS MAGNITUDE WILL EASILY BE CAPABLE OF DOWNING OR UPROOTING TREES... ESPECIALLY ACROSS CAPE COD AND THE ISLANDS. ...STORM SURGE AND STORM TIDE... WITH THE PRESENT TRACK PROJECTION...STORM SURGE FLOODING IS NOT A MAJOR CONCERN ALONG THE MASSACHUSETTS OR RHODE ISLAND COASTS. A STORM SURGE OF 2 TO 3 FEET IS POSSIBLE ALONG NANTUCKET HARBOR...THE EAST SIDE OF CHATHAM...AND THE NORTHEAST FACING COASTLINE OF MARTHA/S VINEYARD AROUND THE TIME OF THE FRIDAY EVENING HIGH TIDE. ALONG THE REST OF THE MASSACHUSETTS AND RHODE ISLAND COAST...A STORM SURGE OF 1 TO 2 FEET IS POSSIBLE. ALTHOUGH A LOW RISK AT THIS TIME...MORE SERIOUS COASTAL FLOODING COULD OCCUR FRIDAY NIGHT IN WELLFLEET AND PROVINCETOWN HARBOR... IF EARL SHOULD TRACK FURTHER WEST AND PASS VERY NEAR THE OUTER CAPE. ...INLAND FLOODING... THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS EXPECTED OVER RHODE ISLAND AND EASTERN MASSACHUSETTS WHERE AMOUNTS OF 3 TO 6 INCHES IS POSSIBLE. MUCH OF THIS RAIN MAY FALL IN A 12 HOUR PERIOD LATE FRIDAY INTO FRIDAY NIGHT WHICH WOULD BE ENOUGH TO PRODUCE WIDESPREAD URBAN AND POOR DRAINAGE FLOODING ALONG WITH MINOR SMALL STREAM AND RIVER FLOODING...WITH POCKETS OF MODERATE FLOODING. THE AXIS OF HEAVIEST RAINFALL IS TRACK DEPENDENT AND COULD SHIFT FURTHER WEST OR EAST DEPENDING ON THE EVENTUAL TRACK OF EARL. ...RIP CURRENTS... HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS WILL ARRIVE TODAY ALONG THE RHODE ISLAND AND SOUTHEAST MASSACHUSETTS SHORELINE. THIS INCLUDES CAPE COD...NANTUCKET AND MARTHAS VINEYARD. THE WORST OF THESE DANGEROUS BEACH CONDITIONS WILL BE FRIDAY AS HURRICANE EARL APPROACHES SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND. EARL WILL EXIT INTO THE CANADIAN MARITIMES SATURDAY...HOWEVER THE SOUTHERN NEW ENGLAND OCEAN WATERS WILL REMAIN VERY TURBULENT INTO THE WEEKEND DESPITE IMPROVING WEATHER CONDITIONS. THEREFORE EXPECT HIGH SURF AND DANGEROUS RIP CURRENTS TO PERSIST THROUGH SATURDAY AND POSSIBLY INTO SUNDAY AS WELL. BEACH GOERS SHOULD CHECK WITH LOCAL BEACH PATROLS AND LIFEGUARDS BEFORE ENTERING THE WATER. SWIMMING RESTRICTIONS ARE LIKELY WITH POSSIBLE BEACH CLOSURES DURING THIS TIME. THE MOST DANGEROUS SURF CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED AT SOUTH AND EAST FACING OCEAN EXPOSED BEACHES. $$ |