Re: uniform position variance
Posted by JAC on 9/2/2010, 10:48 am
That was a ton of over-the-top met language.

I think it is the difference in track position from one ensemble member to the other.

If their differences are uniform, no wild fluctuations, it sounds like they are more confident in the forecast.,

And as the actual delta magnitudes decrease, even more confidence.

In other words, a tight bunch of spaghetti is a good forecast.







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Latest Ensembles - JAC, 9/2/2010, 7:39 am
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