Re: should clarify
Posted by Doorman on 9/13/2010, 1:35 pm
thanks to my #1 fan Linda


understanding the NHC TVCN consensus


http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/modelsummary.shtml

Average of at least 2 of GHMI, EGRI, NGPI, HWFI, GFSI, GFNI, EMXI
TVCN
Consensus
E
Trk

THE INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS 265/9 KNOTS...A LITTLE SLOWER THAN
BEFORE...AND A BIT SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST.  MOST OF THE
GUIDANCE...WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...SHOWS IGOR TURNING
TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST BY TONIGHT AND THEN TURNING NORTHWESTWARD
BY 48 HOURS AS IT MOVES INTO A LARGE BREAK IN THE SUBTROPICAL
RIDGE. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS A LITTLE SOUTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE
THROUGH 12 HOURS GIVEN THE INITIAL POSITION AND MOTION. FROM 12
THROUGH 48 HOURS THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO BUT A LITTLE
SLOWER THAN THE PREVIOUS PACKAGE AND TRENDS TOWARD THE TVCN
CONSENSUS MODEL FORWARD SPEED. AT 72 HOURS AND BEYOND THERE IS
CONSIDERABLE UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EVOLUTION OF THE LARGE-SCALE FLOW
AND THE TRACK OF IGOR.  THE ECMWF AND UKMET SHOW MORE MID-LEVEL
RIDGING NORTH AND NORTHEAST OF IGOR OVER THE CENTRAL ATLANTIC AND
MOVE IGOR SLOWER AND FARTHER SOUTH THAN THE REST OF THE GUIDANCE AT
DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE GFS...GFDL...AND GFDN KEEP THIS RIDGE FARTHER
EAST AND ALLOW IGOR TO GAIN MORE LATITUDE AND RECURVE AHEAD OF A
LONGWAVE TROUGH SITUATED OFFSHORE OF THE NORTHEASTERN UNITED
STATES.  THE NOGAPS AND HWRF ARE BETWEEN THESE TWO CAMPS AND SHOW A
NORTHWESTWARD MOTION AT DAY 5. GIVEN THE INCREASING SPREAD OF THE
GUIDANCE LATE IN THE PERIOD...THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS SIMPLY AN
UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AT THESE TIMES AND IS OF LOWER
CONFIDENCE THAN NORMAL. THE NHC TRACK IS CLOSE TO THE NOGAPS AND
WELL TO THE NORTH OF THE UKMET AND ECMWF AT THE END OF THE PERIOD.

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Is there going to be a pattern change anytime soon? - stormlover, 9/13/2010, 11:16 am
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