Julia
Posted by
BobbiStorm on 9/15/2010, 7:06 am
So... Julia is a Category 4...
So much for that weakening to a Tropical Storm that was being talked about not so long ago. So, what changed? Did the models read her that wrong? Sat Imagery? Such a BIG discrepancy from the NHC Models seems ... big.
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/archive/2010/al12/al122010.discus.011.shtml?
Salient part:
"IT
MAY NOT BE STRONG ENOUGH YET TO LIMIT INTENSIFICATION...AND THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST INDICATES VERY LITTLE CHANGE IN INTENSITY FOR THE
NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THIS FOLLOWS THE TREND SHOWN IN THE STATISTICAL
GUIDANCE. AFTER 36 HOURS...VERTICAL SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO INCREASE
DRASTICALLY AS JULIA MOVES AROUND THE NORTHERN EDGE OF A MID- TO
UPPER-LEVEL LOW...AND THEN BEGINS TO FEEL THE INFLUENCE OF
UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW FROM HURRICANE IGOR. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
JUST A LITTLE HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE DUE TO THE RECENT
INTENSIFICATION...AND IT STILL SHOWS WEAKENING TO A TROPICAL STORM
BY DAY 5."
That was not very long ago...so what wasn't read properly?
Or was this an unseen flash in the pan explosion of energy and she falls apart as fast???
NHC Track has been spot on all year.... intensity is a bit lacking.
Curious why the models didn't see that one coming? |
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Julia - BobbiStorm, 9/15/2010, 7:06 am Post A Reply
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